Trump’s chaotic trade policies to crush Australian commodity export earnings

Australia’s mining and energy export earnings are forecast to continue falling over the next two years, weighed down by weaker bulk commodity prices, rising global supply, and mounting trade policy uncertainties, according to the federal government’s June-quarter resources and energy report (the report is from Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources).

• Export revenues are projected to fall from A$415 billion in 2023–24 to A$385 billion this year, and then to A$352 billion by 2026–27.
• Iron ore and LNG — the country’s largest exports — are set to face price declines due to increased global supply.
• Iron ore earnings are forecast to drop from A$116 billion this year to A$97 billion by 2026–27.

The report highlights growing caution among global businesses, as uncertainty around U.S. trade policy prompts investment delays and suppresses commodity demand.

Not all sectors are under pressure.

• Gold is expected to become Australia’s third-largest export next year, reaching A$56 billion, with both prices and volumes climbing.
• Lithium is also forecast to rebound gradually, with earnings projected to rise from A$4.6 billion this year to A$6.6 billion in 2026–27.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.