US May retail sales -0.9% vs -0.7% expected

• Prior was +0.1% (revised to -0.1%)

Details:

• Ex-autos -0.3% vs +0.1% expected
• Prior ex autos +0.1% (revised to 0.0%)
• Ex autos and gas -0.1% vs +0.2% prior
• Control group +0.4% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior control -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)
• Retail sales y/y vs +5.16% prior

Fed pricing for year-end ahead of the data was -49 bps and slightly shifted to -48.5 afterwards. The FOMC meeting begins today with a decision tomorrow and this will be one of the data points they go over in the meeting.

The report is soft on the headline but the control group is the best indicator of the consumer and it was slightly better than expected along with upward revisions.

Overall, this is a tough series to read right now because sales jumped in March on tariff worries and have fallen in two consecutive months since.

Some categories in the report:

• Electronics and appliance stores -0.6%
• Building materials -2.7%
• Food and beverage stores -0.7%
• Food services and drinking places -0.9%
• Clothing and accessories +0.8%
• Sporting goods, hobby and musical +0.8%

The dip in restaurants is concerning but other discretionary categories like sporting goods were good. The dimmest part of the economy remains anything to do with housing, with building materials down 1.1% y/y (and that’s not adjusted for inflation).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.