UK OBR publishes fiscal outlook and forecasts earlier than expected, before the budget

That figure is up from the £9.9 billion headroom as set out in their forecast in March. As for the other details:

• Budget extends freezes of personal tax thresholds for a further 3 years from 2028-29 to 2030-31
• The freezing of personal tax and employer NICs thresholds raises £8.0 billion
• Increases to dividend, property, savings tax rates raises £2.1 billion
• NICs on salary-sacrifice pensions raises £4.7 billion
• There will be a total increase in receipts by £14.9 billion on personal tax changes
• To impose tax on properties worth over £2 million
• Charge on electric, plug-in hybrid cars starting from April 2028, which raises £1.4 billion
• Reforms to gambling tax raises £1.1 billion
• Budget policies increase spending in every year and by £11 billion in 2029-30
• As a share of GDP, the budget delivers third-largest medium-term tax increase since 2010
• Probability of meeting current budget target is at 59% (previously 54% in March)
• 2025 GDP growth seen at 1.5% (previously 1.0%)
• 2026 GDP growth seen at 1.4% (previously 1.9%)
• 2027 GDP growth seen at 1.5%
• 2025 CPI inflation seen at 3.5% (previously 3.3%)
• 2027 CPI inflation seen at 2.0%
• Debt as a share of GDP seen at 95% this year and to end the decade at 96%
• Full document

This feels a little odd as some of these things feel like they should be part of the budget announcement itself. Markets are already of course taking to it and reacting accordingly with UK gilt yields tumbling lower while the pound spiked higher for a brief moment before settling a little bit.

10-year yields in the UK are down from 4.50% to 4.46% while GBP/USD pushed up from around 1.3155 earlier to 1.3185 currently with the high earlier touching 1.3200.

The big round numbers are what we’re looking for and they are a positive, especially the fiscal headroom indicated in the headline. So, no need for Reeves I guess? Seems like we could just call it a day unless she messes up the delivery.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.