ADP weekly 4-week moving average of private employment 11.5K vs 17.5K prior

• ADP Pulse for the week ending December 6 comes in at 11.5K vs a revised 17.5K last week
• For the four weeks ending Nov. 29, 2025, private employers added an average of 17.5K jobs a week. This continued strengthening during the second half of November signals a rebound in hiring after four weeks of job losses. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added.

For the full report CLICK HERE.

The ADP released their monthly report for November earlier in the month and it showed a net positive decline for the month at 32K. This report suggests a rebound in December.

What is the ADP NER Pulse?

ADP recently introduced a major evolution to its labor market tracking: the ADP NER Pulse. This new high-frequency data series was launched on October 28, 2024, to provide a more real-time look at the labor market than the traditional monthly report.

Here is the breakdown of how the 4-week average works and why it matters for your post today.

What is the ADP “Pulse” Data?

Unlike the standard monthly report, which captures a single “reference week” (the week of the 12th), the NER Pulse is a weekly estimate of private-sector employment changes.

• The 4-Week Moving Average: To reduce the “noise” and volatility inherent in weekly payroll shifts, ADP reports the data as a 4-week moving average. This means the number you see today represents the average weekly job gain or loss over the last month.

• The Lag: There is a two-week lag in the reporting. This allows ADP to collect and process complete payroll data from their 26+ million tracked employees to ensure the “pulse” is accurate.

• Frequency: It is released every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except for the week when the final monthly National Employment Report (NER) is published.

Why the Switch to Weekly?

The Fed and economists have recently criticized monthly data for being a “lagging indicator.” ADP’s shift aims to solve several problems:

1. Spotting Turning Points: Monthly data can miss sudden economic shifts (like those caused by strikes, weather, or rapid cooling). Weekly data helps identify if a dip is a “bump in the road” or a new trend.

2. Smoothing Volatility: By using the 4-week average, ADP mirrors the methodology used for “Initial Jobless Claims,” making it easier to compare hiring (ADP) vs. firing (Labor Dept).

3. Data Quality: Because it uses actual administrative payroll records rather than surveys, it provides a “hard data” alternative to the BLS’s sometimes volatile survey results.

Why today is important?

Today’s release is particularly important because it follows a period of “choppy” hiring.

• Previous Trend: The data released on December 16 showed a gain of 17,50 jobs per week (4-week average), which signaled a potential rebound after a rough October/November.

• The data today shows a slowing of that hiring but still positive.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.