When is the Eurozone Prelim flash GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Eurozone Prelim flash GDP estimate overview
At 1000 GMT, the first reading of the Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP figures will be reported. The consensus amongst traders expects the bloc’s economic growth to steady at 0.2% inter-quarter in Q4, while on an annualized basis, is expected to decelerate to 1.2% versus 1.6% booked last.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 4 to -2.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 120-130 pips.
How could affect EUR/USD?
From a technical perspective, an upside surprise in the Eurozone GDP figures could add extra legs to the EUR/USD upside, fuelling a break above the January 11th high at 1.1542. A sustained move above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1563/72 (200-DMA/ multi-month tops) and 1.1600 (round number).
On the flip side, a bigger-than-expected drop in the annualized reading could drag the spot back to 1.1465/54 (daily pivot/ 5-DMA), below which the next supports are aligned at 1.1428 (20-DMA) and 1.1405 (10-DMA).
Key Notes
Eurozone GDP and trade amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls likely to target Jan. swing highs, eyeing Euro-zone GDP figures
US-DE 10-Yr Yield Spread Technical Analysis: spread could drop 10 bps in EUR-positive manner
About Eurozone Q4 Prelim flash GDP
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).