IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2022
What happened in the US session?
Most major currencies traded with low volatility as prices consolidated heading into the Thanksgiving weekend.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Look for the major currencies to continue trading in a consolidation in the Asia session, with no major news events on the horizon.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from DXY today?
The DXY currently trades at 105.93 despite testing a high of 106.30 on Friday. With no major news events for the DXY today, the DXY is likely to continue trading between the price range of 105.65 and 106.30. However, if the DXY resists further downside moves, a stronger rebound could be anticipated, with the next key resistance level at 107.70.
Central Bank Notes:
- Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 4.00%
- Next meeting is on 15 December 2022
- Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
As Gold continues to trade along the 1755 price level, the next directional bias is still heavily dependent on the DXY. If the DXY breaks below the current support level, Gold could continue to climb toward 1780 and the 1800 key resistance level. Alternatively, if the DXY has a sustained move upward, Gold could trade lower briefly with 1735 forming a strong support level.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The AUDUSD was trading between the 0.6735 and 0.6780 price level on Friday. Ending the trading week at the 0.6750 price level, price action for the AUDUSD signals resistance to trade to the downside. Look for the AUDUSD to trade higher above the 0.6780 price level to signal a confirmation of the continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance level at 0.6950.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 2.85%
- Future rate rises will be determined by data, the outlook for inflation, and the labour market.
- Next meeting on 6 December 2022
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Similar to the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD traded in a wide consolidation between the 0.6230 and 0.6270 price range. The NZDUSD ended the trading week at the 0.6243 price level. However, the price action of the NZDUSD deviates from the AUDUSD as it signals a potential rejection of the upside. Look for the NZDUSD to break below the 0.62 price level to signal further downside potential, with the next key support level at 0.6160.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 4.25%
- Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
- Next meeting is on 21 February 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The USDJPY bounced from the 138.45 price level on Friday to trade higher toward the 139.60 interim resistance level. Although there are no major news events scheduled, the USDJPY could trade higher from the current price level of 139.12, especially if the price fails to break below 138.50. Look for the the USDJPY to trade higher toward the previous swing high of 142, if the price is able to break strongly above the 139.50 price level.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at -0.1%
- Expects Short- And Long-Term Policy Rates To Remain At ‘Present Or Lower’ Levels
- Next meeting is on 20 December 2022
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish