IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 March 2023
What happened in the US session?
The US Pending Home Sales m/m data release indicates a positive change of 0.8% (forecast -2.9%, previous 8.1%) in the number of homes under contract for sale in the last month, suggesting an improvement amid the slowdown of the housing market.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
The data-light session will likely see the major pairs consolidate in the ranges established during the prior session.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Final GDP q/q
Unemployment Claims
What can we expect from DXY today?
The forecasted and previous data show no change in the US final GDP q/q at 2.7%. However, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase from 191K to 196K. This could indicate weakness in the labour market and the overall economy, negatively impacting the USD.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
The latest CPI y/y for Australia showed a consecutive drop, suggesting an easing global inflation situation and potentially leading to a decrease in gold prices.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
No major news event for AUD today. The price direction could draw from the previous CPI y/y data release, which showed a consecutive drop to 6.8%.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The NZ Building Consents m/m data showed a 9.0% decline, far below the previous figure of 5.2%. This suggests a slowdown in the construction industry and may lead to a depreciation in the NZD. A drop in the upcoming release of the ANZ Business Confidence (previous -43.3) could exacerbate a downward price movement.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
There is no major news event for JPY today, so price direction may depend on expectations for upcoming data releases. Tokyo Core CPI y/y is expected at 3.1%, down from the previous 3.3%. The anticipated drop in consumer prices could lead to a decline in JPY.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
German Prelim CPI m/m
What can we expect from EUR today?
The forecasted data is 0.6%, slightly lower than the previous month’s figure of 0.8%. If the actual figure comes in below the forecast, it may signal lower inflationary pressures but could lead only to a slight decrease in the value of the EUR since the ECB expressed hawkishness even amid the banking crisis.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
As there is no major news event for the currency today, the price direction of CHF is likely to draw from the previously released Credit Suisse Economic Expectations data that showed a value of -41.3 (previous -12.3). This indicates that there has been a significant drop in economic expectations over the given time frame, which could lead to a decrease in the value of CHF.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
MPC member Mann’s speech stated that reducing UK services inflation from 6% to 2% will be challenging, causing uncertainty and potentially reducing GBP’s value against other major currencies. The long-term impact is still being determined, but the BoE’s strong track record of managing inflation will likely prevent significant changes, despite the persistent core inflation remaining.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Governor Council Member Gravelle suggests large-scale GOC bond purchases if faced with severe dysfunction, while Canada’s well-regulated financial system may still be affected by global events. Support for the system would be provided in times of widespread stress.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Crude Oil Inventories decreased by 7.5M barrels, surpassing the forecasted and previous numbers of 1.8M and 1.1M barrels, respectively. This implies a reduction in supply and could lead to increased oil prices.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Bullish