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What’s expected:
March jobs so far:
According to BMO, the headline payrolls
print is seasonally positive in April – coming in above estimates 57% of the
time (by an average of 62k), missing 39% of the time (by an average of 50k),
and matching consensus 4% of the time (excl. 2020/21). In terms of the unemployment rate, 44% of previous
reads in April have been lower-than-expected, 36% have been
higher-than-estimates, and 20% have matched forecasts.
Generally these numbers point to a beat but the consensus is the highest since September 2022, which suggests economists have priced in much of the upside already.