Bitcoin price may see further upside, Standard Chartered says, citing looser regulation and US spot ETFs

• Bitcoin could benefit from US fiscal dominance and Trump winning, Standard Chartered says, citing loser regulation and spot ETF approvals.
• Hong Kong issuers told WuBlockchain that the government prohibits sale of virtual asset-related products to mainland Chinese.
• South Korea’s winning party to allow spot BTC ETFs within country’s borders in June.
• Bitcoin price is consolidating within a falling wedge pattern with a 20% target objective of $76K.

Bitcoin (BTC) price could have significantly higher upside potential, Standard Chartered says, with a Republican administration in office in the US. 

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Daily digest market movers: Looser regulation and US spot ETFs could bode well for Bitcoin in a Republican administration

In a report by Standard Chartered, the multinational bank says that beyond the passive boost that Bitcoin continues to enjoy due to the de-dollarization campaign, a second-term Republican president such as Donald Trump would be good for BTC and digital assets at large.

The bank cited less stringent regulation and the approval of more spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). With the odds progressively leaning toward Trump taking office, Standard Chartered has revised its BTC target for the end of the year to between $150K and $200K for the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, following Honk Kong launching its spot BTC and ETH ETFs, the issuers told WuBlockchain that the government prohibits sale of virtual asset-related products to mainland Chinese. This quashes any speculation that trade agreements between China and Hong Kong could allow mainland investors to access spot BTC ETFs in Hong Kong.

In another development, Asia is steadily coming to the Bitcoin party by way of ETFs. For one, South Korea’s Democratic Party, which is the winning side in the country’s political divide, is set to allow spot BTC ETFs beginning in June. Also, Japan and Singapore are likely to approve BTC ETFs, following in the footsteps of Hong Kong as Asia catches up to the US market.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin price could rally 20% upon breakout

Bitcoin price action since March has consolidated in a falling wedging pattern on the one-day time frame, hinting at a significant upward breakout. This bullish reversal pattern occurs when the asset’s price bounces between two downward-sloping converging trendlines and will be executed after a confirmed breakout past the upper trendline.

The profit target of a falling wedge is measured by adding the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines to the breakout point.

Bulls looking to take long positions for BTC should probably wait for a stable break of the trendline above $68,000 and a higher low on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). A steady move above $70,000 could precipitate a reclamation of the $73,777 peak, before completing the target objective of 20% to $76,116.

In the meantime, Bitcoin price continues to conceal its directional bias, with the RSI still woven along the mean level of 50. Around the current price level, however, the spikes on the volume profile show that BTC bulls are defending against further downside.

Bullish sentiment is also present in the BTC market, seen with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator’s green shade as the bars edge toward positive territory. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

On the other hand, if the bears have their way, the Bitcoin price could drop to lose the support at $60,600. In a dire case where the price descends below the lower trendline, a break below $56,000 on the one-day chart would invalidate the bullish thesis. 

In such a directional bias, BTC could become attractive for buying again near the $52,654 level where a lot of bullish activity awaits traders as shown by the yellow nodes on the volume profile.