BOE decision coming up next, a rate cut is widely expected

The two-minute delay is to commemorate VE Day, so just be wary of that. As for what to expect, here is what analysts are saying ahead of the decision (h/t @ MNI Markets):

HSBC- 25 bps rate cut (8-1 vote, Dhingra to vote for 50 bps)- “There are a number of on-off doves who could join the more steadfast Ms Dhingra (Dave
Ramsden, Alan Taylor and Catherine Mann) in voting for a 50bp reduction”- “It is not our central case that it will cut in June. But it is possible, and if the Committee also
thinks it is possible, it may want to signal that.”

Citi- 25 bps rate cut (9-0, 8-1, 7-2 votes all plausible)- “A unanimous vote for a 25bp cut looks plausible, though it is possible that external MPC
member Dhingra could see the need for additional, pre-emptive easing and vote for a 50bp
step”- “Our expectation is still for another hold in June, with cuts at every meeting this year thereafter”

ING- 25 bps rate cut (8-1 vote, Dhingra to vote for 50 bps)- “The messaging from officials so far this year has
made us less convinced of that, and instead, we think the path of least resistance is for the
Bank to keep cutting rates once per quarter”- “That process could, however, continue for longer than markets are now pricing. We think
Bank Rate will fall to 3.25% by mid-2026 and possibly even a little lower than that.”

JP Morgan- 25 bps rate cut (8-1 vote, Dhingra to vote for 50 bps)- “There is a risk others consider a 50 bps cut too, e.g. Mann”- “Our best guess is that the BoE won’t drop “gradual and careful” from its guidance”- “There is a risk, however, that the BoE could revamp its guidance entirely, indicating that it
sees risks to inflation in both directions and is willing to respond as necessary”- A pause in June is expected next before sequential cuts
between August and November to 3.50% by year-end

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.