Preview: China export growth likely slowed sharply to +1.9% y/y in April (+12.4% in March)

Via Reuters polling expectations

• China’s export growth likely slowed to 1.9% y/y in April, sharply down from 12.4% in March (the March export surge was partly due to exporters rushing shipments ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes), as Trump’s new tariffs took effect.

• The range of expectations varied from down 3.5% to a rise of 7.0%.

• Imports expected to fall 5.9% y/y, worsening from a 4.3% drop in March, signaling weak domestic demand.

The background to this is Trump has raised China tariffs to 145%, China retaliated with tariffs of up to 125% and curbs on some U.S. goods.

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Preliminary U.S.-China trade talks are set for this Saturday in Switzerland. Bessent is not too hopeful, saying he is looking for some de-escalation:

• “My sense is this will be about de-escalation”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.