US Leading Idex for April -1.0% versus -0.0% estimate

• Prior month -0.7% revised to -0.8%
• Leading index -1.0% versus -0.9% estimate
• 38 or 41 months have been negative.
• The -1.0% is the loweest since March 2023

Other details from the Census department:

• LEI (Leading Economic Index):

  • Fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100)

  • March decline revised to -0.8% (from -0.7%)

  • Down 2.0% over the last six months (same rate as previous 6 months)

  • Largest monthly drop since March 2023

  • Most components deteriorated, especially consumer expectations, building permits, and average workweek in manufacturing

  • Still not low enough to trigger a recession signal

  • Conference Board forecasts 1.6% GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024

  • Tariff impacts expected to hit hardest in Q3 2025

• CEI (Coincident Economic Index):

  • Rose by 0.1% in April 2025 to 114.8

  • Up 1.1% over past six months (vs. 0.9% prior)

  • All four components contributed, but industrial production was weakest

• LAG (Lagging Economic Index):

  • Increased by 0.3% in April 2025 to 119.3

  • Reversed March’s 0.1% decline

  • Six-month growth rate: +0.8%, reversing the prior -0.8% trend

The components for the month show:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.