ANZ warn on Hormuz disruption, oil could rise to US$95 / bbl

Reuters carry a few comments from analysts in response to the weekend developments re Trump’s strike on Iran.

JP Morgan take a bit of a big pic view:

• cautioned that past episodes
  of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices
  spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over time

Trump floated the idea of regime change after many in the admin deniend this was a goal:

• Trump is tweeting about regime change in Iran

ANZ on the nearer term:

• “With the U.S. becoming involved, the risk of Iran
  retaliating by disrupting the flows of oil from the Middle East
  has risen significantly,”
• “Prices in the
  $90–95/bbl range would be the likely outcome.”

I passed on info a few minutes ago saying that while closing Hormuz is not going to happen, that doesn’t mean there will be no disruption:

• There is basically zero chance Iran will be able to close the Strait of Hormuz

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.