ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI jumps into growth

• Note – Hong Kong markets are closed today for a holiday
• Japan Hayashi: Japan won’t do anything to sacrifice agriculture sector in U.S. trade talks
• Bank of Japan press conference at 5pm Tokyo time
• China Caixin June 2025 Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (expected 49.0, prior 48.3)
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Tuesday, July 1, 2025
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1534 (vs. estimate at 7.1509)
• BOJ official: No clear voices from firms citing impact of U.S. trade policy on capex plans
• Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 2025 comes in at 50.1, from preliminary 50.4
• Tesla has raised the price on Model 3 long range edition to 285,000 yuan
• USD/JPY slips under 143.60 after the Bank of Japan Tankan report
• BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10)
• BNZ forecasts no rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the July meeting
• The Bank of Japan Tankan report is due soon, here are the Reuters results as a preview
• Australian final June 2025 manufacturing PMI 50.6 (prior 51.0)
• UK BRC Shop Price Index for June 2025: +0.4% y/y (prior –0.1%)
• Japan to begin seabed rare earth extraction in 2025 to curb China dependence
• New Zealand building permits +10.4% m/m in May (prior -15.6%)
• US Dollar’s fate hinges on Fed motives, says Commerzbank
• QSBO NZ business confidence Q2 2025: 22% (prior 19%)
• Blackrock says global investors reassessing U. strength, diversifying away from US assets
• Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude oil to fall to $60 as supply builds
• “1H” decline of 10.8% for the USD is NOT one hour! Its the fall in one half, ie six months
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Jun. Month ends with USD at low for year. Yields lower
• ICYMI – Trump hints at more tariffs on Japan via interview and on his social media outlet
• ICYMI – Goldman Sachs brings forward Fed rate cut forecast to September, from December
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 1 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The yen strengthened, with USD/JPY dipping to around 143.50, reflecting a market reaction to the relative upside surprise in Japanese data, the BoJ Tankan and the final manufacturing PMI for June.

A mixed set of results from Japan’s Q2 Bank of Japan Tankan survey offered a cautiously optimistic signal, with the overall tone more positive than expected—not by a wide margin, but enough to suggest resilience in Japanese business sentiment.

• The headline index for large manufacturers improved, reflecting a modest recovery in confidence.

• In contrast, sentiment among large non-manufacturers dipped slightly, as rising living costs continued to weigh on consumption.

• Both manufacturers and services firms expect conditions to deteriorate in the next three months, tempering the upbeat read.

Japan’s final manufacturing PMI for June rose to 50.1 (flash: 50.4; prior: 49.4), marking the first expansion in 13 months, driven by a rebound in output and production optimism.

Meanwhile in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.4 in June (forecast: 49.0; prior: 48.3), signalling a return to growth after the sharp dip in May. Domestic production and new orders improved, but external demand remained soft, with export orders still contracting and employment shrinking. Falling input and output prices highlight the fragile pricing power across the sector, despite signs of ongoing policy support.

The USD lost ground early but has since shown a bounce back. EUR/USD rose to poke breifely above 1.1800.

Gold was basically one-way trafiic higher.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.