General Market Analysis – 4/11/25

Tech Stocks Push Higher on AI Deals – Nasdaq up 0.5%

US stocks experienced a mixed session overnight, with tech shares once again leading the charge after a series of AI-related partnership announcements. The Nasdaq gained 0.46% to close at 23,834, while the broader S&P 500 edged up 0.17% to 6,851. The Dow, however, slipped 0.48% to 47,336 as disappointing ISM data and ongoing concerns about the US government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The US dollar continued to grind higher, adding 0.16% to 99.87 as traders continued to adjust to last week’s less dovish tone from the Federal Reserve. Yields also moved higher, with the 2-year Treasury rising 2.9 basis points to 3.603% and the 10-year up 3.1 basis points to 4.108%. Commodities had a rare quiet day, with oil and gold both finishing close to flat. Brent crude inched up 0.11% to $64.84, and WTI rose 0.02% to $60.99, while gold eased slightly by 0.02% to $4,001.06 an ounce.

Dollar Grinds Higher Post Fed – DXY up 1.5%

There has been plenty of volatility in the market since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week, but one of the quiet performers has been the USD. While other financial products have seen quite choppy market conditions, the dollar overall has pushed higher, with the DXY seeing four consecutive days of gains to lock in a near 1.5% rise. The DXY is now sitting at levels not seen since early August, and with some of the major pairs threatening to break into new ranges, we could see this dollar move accelerate in the coming sessions. USDJPY, in particular, has consolidated on resistance levels, and a break higher would drive the index further north, as would a substantial break through the 1.1500 level for the euro. The absence of US data is certainly a concern for these moves, but further indications from Fed members — and there are plenty speaking later this week — could make the market a lot less dovish and push the dollar into fresh ranges.

Central Banks Back in Focus Today

With the US government shutdown rolling into its 36th day, the macroeconomic calendar is starting to look bare again this week, when we would normally be expecting a big jobs update. The focus for the next couple of sessions will be firmly on central banks, with a key interest rate update due out of Australia and comments expected from other central banks in the following sessions. The RBA is firmly expected to keep rates on hold at 3.60% today after last week’s stronger-than-expected CPI data prints, and traders are expecting volatility around the event mainly from updates in the statement and consequent press conference. There are no top-level data releases due now on the calendar in the latter sessions, although we do hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Fed’s Michelle Bowman, and the MPC’s Sarah Breeden in the London session, and the Buba’s Joachim Nagel later in the day.

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