The Google chamgechanger: Why GOOG stock is surging and everyone else is slumping

Google shares are up 6.5% today and trading at an all time high.

I wrote about why earlier today. This week, I also wrote about why Nvidia is a bubble and Gemini 3 being trained with Google’s own chips adds to that argument.

I see two paths from here:

1. Google Gemini 3 proved that ‘there is no wall’ in AI and the market gets excited again about the game-changing potential, pushing more money into all the AI names. The whole market continues to go up.
2. The market prices in Alphabet/Google winning (and others losing).

I’m torn.

I think Nvidia is a bubble but shorting the greatest company of a generation is daunting. Jensen Huang argues that the AI market is huge and as the leader, companies building AI will continue to pile into Nvidia chips because they’re the standard, have the software stack and they’re still the best by far. He says that companies are taking a financial risk in betting on anything other than the industry standard (NVIDIA) is too high for CEOs to justify. That’s a powerful argument.

On the flipside, Google just proved you can build a model without Nvidia chips and that means others will as well. At a $5 trillion valuation, the market has priced in an enormous moat for Nvidia that just isn’t there. Earnings are also tonight (preview here) with options implying a +/-7% move.

What will happen to the Nasdaq? I believe Google will outperform but I don’t know if that’s with the rest of the Mag7 and AI names falling. In that case it would be GOOG stock taking market cap from other companies. Or will it just be GOOG stock outperformance in a continued bull market?

The post-earnings reaction to Nvidia may tell us the answer.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.