General Market Analysis – 20/11/25

US Stocks Push Higher Ahead of Nvidia and Jobs Data – Nasdaq up 0.6%

US stocks pulled back some of their recent losses in choppy trading yesterday, with the Dow finishing up 0.10% at 46,138, the S&P 500 rising 0.38% to 6,642, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.59% to 22,564. Investors are likely to find further support today following a strong post-close earnings update from Nvidia, which helped sentiment in tech-heavy sectors. The US dollar surged 0.58% to 100.13 after more hawkish FOMC meeting minutes, while Treasury yields also climbed, the 2-year up 1.9 basis points to 3.592% and the 10-year rising 2.3 basis points to 4.137%. In commodities, oil prices retreated on news of a renewed US push to negotiate an end to the Russia–Ukraine conflict; Brent closed down 1.85% at $63.66 and WTI fell 2.14% to $59.58. Gold, meanwhile, edged 0.26% higher to $4,077.98 as investors awaited fresh US labour market data.

US Jobs Numbers to Dominate Markets

The long-delayed US employment figures for September are at last due to be released later today, and traders are expecting to see plenty of moves in the market around the event. Jobs numbers over the US summer had deteriorated significantly, which had led to a much more dovish Fed and had elevated investor hopes for further rate cuts to stimulate the economy. However, the US government shutdown, which commenced on October 1, delayed the release of the tier 1 data until today, and although we have seen a 25-basis point cut in the interim period, market pricing and last night’s Fed meeting minutes have now reduced the likelihood of a further cut in December to 32%—having stood at 95% a month ago. A much weaker-than-expected print compared with the anticipated 60k increase could really put the cat amongst the pigeons and see further sharp corrections in the market. Whatever the result, most traders are expecting plenty of volatility around the release.

Non-Farms Day – At Last!

Today brings the long-awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report, with September data arriving 48 days late. There is little on the event calendar in the first couple of sessions of the day, although Chinese Loan Prime Rate updates could move markets in the unlikely event that there is a surprise. However, it is a different story once New York opens. Traders are bracing for heightened volatility as we get our first tier-one look at US employment data in weeks; the headline Non-Farms Employment Change is expected to come in around the +60k mark, with the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 4.3% and the Average Hourly Earnings printing at +0.3% again. Existing home sales data (exp. 4.08mio) will also be released later in the session, but expect the jobs numbers to dominate sentiment into the close.

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