NY Fed manufacturing index for December -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate.

• Prior month 18.7
• Current month (December) -3.90
• Estimate 10.0
• new orders 0.0 versus 15.9 last month.
• Shipments -5.7 versus 60.8 last month.
• Employment 7.3 versus 6.6 last month.
• Average employee workweek 3.5 versus 7.7 last month
• Prices paid 37.6 versus 49.0 last month.
• Prices received 19.8 versus 24.0 last month.

NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index – December Overview

• Business activity declined slightly in December, following two months of expansion.

• Headline general business conditions index fell to -3.9, down sharply from last month’s high, turning negative again.

New orders and shipments:

• New orders were steady, with roughly one-third of firms reporting increases and about one-third reporting declines.

• Shipments declined modestly, reflecting softer near-term demand.

Supply chain and inventories

• Delivery times shortened, indicating easing supply chain pressures.

• Supply availability worsened, suggesting renewed input constraints.

• Inventories increased modestly, pointing to stockpiling amid uncertainty.

Employment and hours worked

• Employment increased modestly, with the employment index rising to 7.3, its sixth positive reading in seven months.

• Average workweek edged lower, signaling only limited labor demand momentum.

Inflation and pricing pressures

• Input price increases slowed for a second straight month, but remain elevated.

• Prices paid index fell to 37.6, the lowest level since January.

• Prices received also declined, easing margin pressures slightly but staying historically high.

Capital spending and investment

• Capital spending plans increased, with the capex index rising to 6.9, signaling modest investment growth.

Outlook and business sentiment

• Firms became increasingly optimistic about the next six months.

• Future business conditions index rose to its highest level since January.

• Expectations for future new orders and shipments improved sharply.

• Firms expect price pressures to remain elevated, while inventories are forecast to expand further.

Bottom line

• Current activity softened, but forward-looking optimism strengthened.

• Inflation pressures are easing but not resolved, while employment and investment remain supportive of a gradual manufacturing recovery.

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This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.