Canada October retail sales -0.2% vs 0.0% expected

• Prior was -0.7% (revised to -0.9%)
• Ex-autos -0.6% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior ex-autos -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)
• Core sales -0.5%
• Advance November reading +1.2%
• Autos sales +0.6% vs -2.9% prior

The surprise story of post-Liberation Day Canada has been just how strong retail sales have been. Unemployment has been creeping up and housing is in a terrible slump in much of the country but consumer keep on spending.

This report is a softer but the advance November reading is very strong.

The notes on October show the largest decrease to core retail sales came from food and beverage retailers, with beer, wine and liquor retailers down 10.6% though it may have been affected by a strike in British Columbia.

Sales were also down at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers (-0.7%) and health and personal care retailers (-0.3%) in October

The headline chart doesn’t look great but the underlying numbers have been good.

RBC also publishes a report based on its credit card data and it has core sales up 1.1% on a three-month rolling average.

“Early signs for Q4 remain positive with spending momentum holding up
despite elevated borrowing costs, and still cautious consumer sentiment,” RBC said.

My sense is that retirees are those near retirement are driving much of the spending. Despite home prices losing value since 2022, they’ve still generated incredible returns over the past decade and that’s keeping that cohort spending. For younger generations, unemployment has risen but there are still enough jobs to keep the consumer buoyant.

Looking to 2026, I expect consumers to

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.