Articles
Gold price hits one-month lows amid headwinds from strong US Dollar
343987 September 28, 2023 02:12 FXStreet Market News
- Gold price faces an intense sell-off as Fed’s hawkish stance strengthens the US Dollar.
- The US economy has remained resilient on the grounds of a tight labor market and robust household demand.
- Investors await the US Durable Goods Orders to put some light on the manufacturing sector’s outlook.
Gold price (XAU/USD) hits a fresh monthly low as pressure from a strong US Dollar and high Treasury yields deepens after Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers see further policy-tightening appropriate. The precious metal skids below the crucial support of $1,900.00 as excess inflationary pressures seem stickier than expected and may encourage the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period than projected.
Meanwhile, the upbeat United States Durable Goods Orders report for August also built pressure on the Gold price. New Orders expanded by 0.2% while investors anticipated a contraction of 0.5%. In the July month, fresh orders for core goods were contracted by 5.6%.
A hawkish commentary from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari is expected to keep the Gold price on the back foot. Fed Kashkari said that there was a risk interest rates might have to go higher but added that it was hard to know. On Monday, Fed Governor Kashkari said that the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further and keep them elevated for some time to bring down inflation to 2%. “If the economy is fundamentally much stronger than we realized, on the margin, that would tell me rates probably have to go a little bit higher, and then be held higher for longer to cool things off,” he added, as reported by Reuters.
The US economy has remained resilient on the grounds of tight labor market conditions and strong consumer spending, but the manufacturing sector has been a major headwind. A revival in the Manufacturing PMI could strengthen the US economy further. For more guidance on factory activity, investors will focus on the US Durable Goods Orders data, which will draw some light on the manufacturing sector outlook.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price cracks as US Dollar moves higher to 106.60
- Gold price continues its two-day sell-off, dropping to over one-month low near $1,895 as US economic resilience stems concerns of a rebound in inflation.
- US inflation, measured by the Core Consumer Price Index, has softened from its peak of 6.6% to 4.3% in August, pressured by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-tightening cycle. The last leg of high inflation seems stubborn due to robust consumer spending and steady wage growth.
- Tight labor market conditions and strong consumer spending momentum could slow down progress on inflation as the overall demand remains robust.
- In addition to that, commercial banks have not shown any sign of sharp contraction in credit despite tight lending standards.
- As inflationary pressures in excess of the 2% desired rate seem a hard nut to crack for Fed policymakers, the plot of “higher interest rates for longer” will keep Gold prices under pressure.
- As per the CME Group Fedwatch tool, traders see almost an 81% chance that interest rates will remain steady at 5.25%-5.50% at the November monetary policy meeting. Traders see a 64% chance for interest rates remaining unchanged for the remainder of the year.
- Lately, Fed policymakers, namely Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, supported further policy tightening.
- Fed Collins said on Friday that a further rate hike is certainly not off the table. She further added that inflation can fall with only a modest rise in unemployment and that core services inflation excluding shelter has not yet shown a sustained improvement.
- The US economy is operating at full employment levels despite the Fed’s historically aggressive restrictive monetary policy. This may keep inflation sticky.
- Meanwhile, the US Dollar extends its winning spell as the American economy seems to be coping better than expected with the consequences of higher interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) prints a fresh 10-month high at 106.32 amid global slowdown fears. 10-year US Treasury yields remain upbeat, above 4.5%, on hawkish interest rate outlook.
- The US Conference Board reported a decline in the Consumer Confidence Index to 103.0 in September from August’s reading of 108.7. The Conference Board commented that the decline in consumer confidence was visible among all age groups. Households seem worried about sticky consumer inflation, political uncertainty, and higher interest rates.
Technical Analysis: Gold price refreshes six-month low
Gold price delivers a breakdown of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern formed on a daily time frame. A downside break of the neutral triangle could lead to higher volatility that results in wider ticks and heavy selling volume. The precious metal seems to be stabilizing below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,908.00. Momentum oscillators indicate a fresh trigger of a bearish impulse.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
USD/CHF pinning into fresh six-month highs over 0.92
343985 September 28, 2023 02:09 FXStreet Market News
- The USD/CHF has cleared 0.9200 and is roping in its highest prices in six months.
- The CHF continues to swoon on the back of a dovish SNB.
- Greenback getting supported by upbeat US data.
The USD/CHF is on track to close in the green for the eleventh straight week as the Greenback (USD) picks up further steam against the Swiss Franc (CHF). US data beats continue to bolster the USD, and rising US Treasury yields on the back of concerns over a potential US government shutdown are adding fuel to the US Dollar fire.
On the CHF side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently surprised markets with an unexpected freeze on rate hikes, and the SNB’s rate hike cycle appears to be well and truly over as inflation slumps below the Swiss central bank’s 2% target and the Swiss domestic economy continues to show signs of weakness.
Markets see US data up, Swiss data down
US Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside on Wednesday, with the headline figure for August printing 0.2%, a healthy rebound from the previous 5.6% decline and landing above the market forecast -0.5%.
Next up on the economic calendar for the USD will be Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, forecast to hold steady at 2.1% for the second quarter.
Friday sees Swiss Retail Sales for the annualized period into August, which last printed at -2.2%, while the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is expected to hold in-line with the previous reading of 0.2%.
USD/CHF technical outlook
The USD/CHF has climbed nearly 8% from July’s lows near 0.8555, and prices have vaulted cleanly over the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.9050.
the 0.9200 region is a neighborhood that plagued the USD/CHF with heavy consolidation in 2021.
Despite the recent rise on the charts, the USD/CHF still remains down almost 2.5% on the year, and buyers will need to overcome 2023’s cap before moving further.
USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF technical levels
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USD/MXN rallies to a new cycle-high past 17.8000 ahead of Banxico rates decision
343983 September 28, 2023 01:49 FXStreet Market News
- USD/MXN rallies to new cycle highs, post 17.8000 on risk aversion, strong USD.
- The Federal Reserve’s hawkish rhetoric and a US government shutdown looming spurred flows toward the safety status of the USD.
- USD/MXN traders eye Banxico’s monetary policy decision, with estimates to hold rates at 11.25%.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) continues to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session after hitting a daily low of 17.4748. Broad USD strength on risk aversion, due to some factors, underpins the USD/MXN, which is trading at 17.7837, though it has hit a new cycle high at 17.8161.
Mexican Peso weakens as looming US government shutdown and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric elevate US Treasury bond yields and the Greenback
Sentiment remains sour, as portrayed by US equities drifting lower. A partial shutdown of the US government looms, while hawkish rhetoric by the Federal Reserve continues to underpin US Treasury bond yields and, consequently, the Greenback.
The US 10-year benchmark note rate sits above 4.63% and has gained nine and a half basis points so far in the session, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of a basket of six currencies versus the Greenback, climbs to yearly highs of 106.82, with buyers eyeing November 30, 2022, high of 107.19.
Minnesota’s Fed President Neil Kashkari commented the risk of interest rates might have to go higher lurks while adding that consumer spending remains robust. Kashkari said that although there is progress in inflation, he remains unsure if the Fed is restrictive enough.
On the data front, the US Department of Commerce showed that Durable Goods Orders for August rose 0.2% MoM, exceeding estimates and the prior month’s -5.6% plunge. Excluding Transports, orders climbed 0.4% MoM, above projections and July’s 0.1% increase.
On the Mexican front, the Trade Balance in August posted a deficit of -1.377 billion dollars in non-adjusted terms, while seasonally adjusted posted a $131 million trade deficit, compared to July’s surplus of $532 million.
Aside from this, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will release its monetary policy decision on Thursday, in which the central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged at 11.25%, according to a Reuters poll of 20 analysts. The central bank has kept rates at 11.25% since March 2023 while inflation decelerates. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the first half of September witnessed a drop to 4.4%, its lowest since March 2021.
USD/MXN Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The daily chart shows the pair has extended its gains to a new cycle high, which could open the door for further upside, but buyers must reclaim the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 17.8511, which could pave the way for a test of 18.0000. A breach of those two levels would put into play a rally towards the April 5 swing high at 18.4010, followed by the March 24 daily high at 18.7968.
Fed’s Kashkari: I am open to the possibility that we may need more than one hike
343982 September 28, 2023 01:40 FXStreet Market News
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday in an interview with CNBC that the central bank could have to raise interest further if the economy does not slow as intended. However, he warned that if downside scenarios for growth like the government shutdown or the auto strike, hit the economy they might have do to less with monetary policy to bring inflation back to the target.
Kashkari explained that the US economy has been surprisingly resilient. Regarding his projections, he sees no rate changes in 2024. “Higher oil prices won’t alone warrant more rate hikes,” he added.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index is up 0.60%, trading at 106.80, at its highest level since November. EUR/USD broke below 1.0500 for the first time since January and USD/JPY is approaching 150.00.
More pain as bonds dump, stocks sink
343981 September 28, 2023 01:35 Forexlive Latest News Market News
A lower-than-expected yield at today’s 5-year auction didn’t do anything to stem the pain in the bond market. The auction stopped through by 1.2 bps but the rest of the market used that bounce as an entry to sell more. 5s are now up 7.1 bps on the day to 4.69%. It’s a consistent move right across the curve as the market pukes up fixed income.
In turn, rising yields are hitting stocks with the S&P 500 now down 32 points, or 0.7%. In FX, that means more US dollar buying as we hit the highs of the day right across the board.
US 5s daily
At this point, you can only hope that the turn of the calendar changes the dynamic in the bond market.
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SEC Chair Gensler blames crypto industry’s non-compliance for enforcement actions; set to update rules
343980 September 28, 2023 01:29 FXStreet Market News
- The Securities and Exchange Commission’s Chair, Gary Gensler, claimed that most crypto tokens are subject to securities laws.
- Gensler stated that the non-compliance of the crypto market with securities laws is the reason the market is facing problems.
- The members of US House Financial Services Committee have asked the SEC to approve the spot Bitcoin ETF filings “immediately”.
Read more – Members of US FSC urge SEC Chair Gensler to immediately approve spot Bitcoin ETFs
The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, has repeated his view that the crypto market should not be exempted from securities laws, as according to him, the vast majority of crypto tokens likely meet the investment contract test.
Gensler made his views clear during a testimony before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services (FSC), in which he discussed the state of the crypto market along with US lawmakers.
SEC Chair attacks crypto market
The SEC Chair went on to blame the crypto industry for the enforcement actions taken by the regulatory body in the past. Gensler stated,
“Given this industry’s wide-ranging non-compliance with the securities laws, it’s not surprising that we’ve seen many problems in these markets…Thus, we have brought a number of enforcement actions—some settled, and some in litigation—to hold wrongdoers accountable and promote investor protection.
While Gensler did say, during the testimony, that the SEC had come up with new proposals for the crypto market, he did not specify any of them.
US House FSC cracks down on SEC
The testimony presented by Gensler came a day after the US House Financial Services Committee’s members wrote a letter to the SEC Chair. In the letter the FSC urged the regulatory body to approve all spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) filings “immediately”.
Endorsed by Representatives Mike Flood, Wiley Nickel, Tom Emmer and Richie Torres, the letter called the SEC’s standards of denial of spot ETFs as “inconsistent and discriminatory”. House FSC also stated that a regulated spot Bitcoin ETF would provide protection to investors as it would make BTC much safer to access and more transparent.
Read more – Breaking: Ark Invest 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF filing delayed
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD collapses below $1,900 as fears back the USD
343978 September 28, 2023 01:26 FXStreet Market News
XAU/USD Current price: $1,875.73
- Concerns about a US government shutdown coupled with fears of an upcoming recession.
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged to a fresh multi-year high of 4.59%.
- XAU/UD pressures fresh multi-week lows and aims to extend its slump in the near term.
Spot Gold accelerated its slump after losing the $1,900 mark, as the US Dollar soared in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD trade below $1,880 at levels last seen in March this year as financial markets monitor United States (US) developments. The country is on the brink of a federal shutdown after House Republicans rejected a bipartisan bill advancing in the Senate. If Congress disagrees on funding, millions of federal employees will be furloughed starting next Saturday.
Meanwhile, stock markets extend their bearish routes amid concerns central banks will maintain rates higher for longer, which increases the risks of economic downturns. Government bond yields soared, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding as much as 4.59%, its highest in over fifteen years. The 2-year note, in the meantime, offers 5.11%, not far from the multi-year peak of 5.20% posted after the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
XAU/USD trades at fresh intraday lows mid-US session, and technical readings in the daily chart suggest sellers are far from done. The bright metal plummeted below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA finally accelerating south below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators head firmly south, well below their midlines, in line with a continued slide. The August monthly low at $1,884.70 is now the immediate support level.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is extremely oversold yet without signs of changing course. Technical indicators head south at extreme levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator currently at 15. At the same time, Gold develops roughly $35 below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, which dips below also bearish longer ones.
Support levels: 1,871.50 1,8589.30 1,845.20
Resistance levels: 1,884.70 1,901.00 1,912.70
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Breaking: EUR/USD tanks below 1.0500, as bears eye YTD lows
343976 September 28, 2023 01:21 FXStreet Market News
- EUR/USD plummets to tenth-month lows, with sellers eyeing a YTD low 1.0482.
- Risk aversion spurred by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and a US government shutdown lurking boosted the safe-haven status of the Greenback.
The EUR/USD is tanking below 1.0500 after hitting a daily high of 1.0574 as US Treasury bond yields continued to climb while market sentiment deteriorated, as Wall Street registers losses between 0.45% and 0.60%.
Fears of a potential government shutdown in the United States (US) in four days would likely delay the release of critical economic data needed in difficult times of high inflation and economic uncertainty. That, alongside expectations of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve, sparked a rise in US Treasury bond yields to yearly highs, with the 10-year benchmark note about to pierce the 4.60% mark. As aforementioned, US equities continued to drop further.
A rise in US Durable Goods Orders showed a robust economy in the US and gave a leg-up to the US Dollar, as demonstrated by the US Dollar Index (DXY), with buyers eyeing the next resistance area at 107.19, the November 30, 2022, high.
Bearish sentiment in the Euro extended due to Consumer confidence in Germany, deteriorating further despite European Central Bank (ECB) members’ hawkish rhetoric, which failed to propel the EUR/USD higher.
EUR/USD Price Action – Daily chart
EUR/USD Key Technical Levels
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US Dollar jumps another leg higher as US government shutdown is near inevitable
343975 September 28, 2023 01:09 FXStreet Market News
- The US Dollar broke higher on Tuesday in late US trading hours as reports from Capitol Hill pointed to no resolution in sight.
- Durable Goods Orders came in as an upbeat surprise on all fronts.
- The US Dollar Index reaches a new 10-month high above 106.63.
The US Dollar (USD) keeps printing new highs at a fast pace this Wednesday, with the main driver this week being the stalemate on Capitol Hill. Both the Senate and the House are pushing bills to the floor, proposals that on its own are not enough to avert a shutdown by October 1. As the deadline looms, it becomes more likely that by Saturday the US government will be shut down and markets could be left in the dark on where the US is in terms of macroeconomic conditions, as an extended halt would mean that many agencies stop publishing economic data.
The main event for Wednesday was the Durable Goods segment where overal Durable Goods Orders for August came in at 0.2% versus -5.6% previous month. When excluding transportation, rose even more from 0.1% to 0.4%, showing a still resilient consumer in the US. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will also publish its US crude stockpile numbers as the current Cushing stockpile reserve is at the lowest level in a decade. The numbers might trigger another leg higher in Oil prices.
Daily digest: US Dollar higher on split Capitol Hill
- The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) was issued at 11:00 GMT its Mortgage Applications number for last week. Applications declined from 5.4% to – 1.3%.
- Durable Goods were a beat on expectations, in a positive sense: Overall Durable Goods for August came out at 0.2%, jumping back positive from previous -5.4%. Durable Goods without Transportation rose as well to 0.4% from 0.1% previous.
- The highly anticipated EIA US crude stockpile report is due at 14:30. Next to the crude stockpile change, the current Cushing reserves will be a market driving factor for Oil prices.
- The US Treasury is expected to hit the markets with a 5-year bond auction at 17:00.
- Equities are all in the green across the board, from Asia to the US futures. Markets are trying to shrug off the negative gloom from the past few days.
- The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in an 80.4 % chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in November.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded as high as 4.51% and takes a small step back from Monday’s peak as investors start to buy safe bonds as a shield for any possible US government shutdown.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: Shutdown inevitable
The US Dollar keeps printing new 10-month highs on a daily basis this week with several main drivers making the Greenback a safe haven. Not only is the possible US government shutdown a nearby factor, the current interest-rate differential and hawkish comments from several US Federal Reserve members makes it clear to markets that policy won’t change anytime soon. This validates the US Dollar Index (DXY) from creeping higher on track for a new 52-week high.
The US Dollar Index opens above 106.00, though the overheated RSI might make it difficult to hold this level. Traders that want to hit a new 52-week high need to be aware that a lot of road needs to be covered towards 114.78. Rather look for 107.19, the high of November 30, 2022, as the next profit target on the upside.
On the downside, the recent resistance at 105.88 should be seen as first support. Still, it has just been broken to the upside, so it isn’t likely to be a strong barrier. Rather look for 105.12 to do the trick and keep the DXY above 105.00.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
WTI US crude oil scorches up over 3%, touches $93 per barrel on Wednesday
343972 September 28, 2023 01:05 FXStreet Market News
- WTI is testing the $93/bbl level in Wednesday trading.
- US crude oil is getting shocked higher after a surprise drawdown in reserves.
- Supply constraints are choking oil prices, sending barrel prices surging.
West Texas Intermediary (WTI) US crude oil prices are leaping higher for the day, pushed by an unexpected drawdown in US crude reserves. WTI reached a 13-month high of $93.18 and is poised for further upside as prices bake in around $93.00.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories showed a surprise drop in US crude oil reserves, with the national supply declining over 2 million barrels versus the forecast -320K.
Reserves at the Cushing, Oklahoma oil reservoir showed declines of just below a million barrels, adding to the over 2 million barrel decline last week.
The EIA estimates that US crude oil reserves now sit just beneath 420 million barrels.
With oil demand continuing to climb, global energy production is expected to remain below supply equilibrium for the foreseeable future until production is increased. The current daily crude supply undershoot is estimated to be around 2 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia and Russia recently announced an extension of their combined 1.3 million bpd production cuts through the end of the year, and Russia is adding to price pressures after further restricting oil exports outside of Russia.
WTI technical outlook
With WTI pinning into fresh 13-month highs, technical resistance is thinning out on both the intraday and long-term outlooks. Oil bidders will immediately be looking for a push to $94/bbl, but with US crude prices riding so high for so long an extended relief rally could see technical indicators reset before a renewed push higher.
WTI is up almost 20% from the last swing low near $78.00, and a rising trendline from June’s bottoms near $68.00 is providing additional technical support.
A breakdown to the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at $86.00 could see a rebound, while a successful bearish break will have to contend with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $77.00.
WTI daily chart
WTI technical levels
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United States 5-Year Note Auction rose from previous 4.4% to 4.659%
343971 September 28, 2023 01:05 FXStreet Market News
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