April non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Any signs of layoffs?

• Consensus estimate +130K
• Estimate range +25K to +195K
• March was +228K
• Private consensus +125K versus +209K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1519%
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%
• Prior participation rate 62.5%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.9%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +3.8% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +62K versus +147K prior (lowest in almost 2 years)
• ISM services employment not yet released
• ISM manufacturing employment 46.5 vs 44.7 prior
• Challenger job cuts 105.44k vs 275.2k prior
• Philly employment +0.2 vs +19.7 prior
• Empire employment -2.6 vs -4.1 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 216K vs 225K prior

Seasonals from BMO:

• In April, the headline beat 57% of the time and missed 43% of the time
• On unemployment, the rate has been lower than expected 42% of the time, higher 39% of the time and in line 19% of the time

ADP looms large ahead of the report and the recent JOLTS number was soft but the initial jobless claims numbers lately haven’t shown any sign of layoffs, including today’s number which was skewed by New York teachers.

I’d note that the recent US dollar outperformance is based on the idea that tariffs won’t hit as hard and the Fed won’t need to rush into cuts. That’s a dangerous assumption ahead of a jobs report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.