Goldman Sachs: Upgrades CNY forecasts, now sees USD/CNY at 7.00 in 12 months

Goldman Sachs shifts to a stronger Chinese Yuan outlook, now forecasting USD/CNY to reach 7.00 by 12 months, citing Beijing’s preference for currency stability and alternative policy support over depreciation amid tariff stress.

Key Points:

• Stable Fix Signals Policy Intent:Despite high tariffs, the PBoC’s consistent USD/CNY fix indicates a preference for exchange rate stability to avoid spooking markets or triggering capital outflows.

• Policy Support Comes Elsewhere:China is opting for monetary easing and aggressive government bond issuance as stimulus tools, rather than using currency depreciation to absorb trade shocks.

• New Forecast Path:Goldman revises its USD/CNY trajectory to 7.20 (3M), 7.10 (6M), and 7.00 (12M) from its earlier 7.30, 7.35, 7.35 path—highlighting a firmer Yuan outlook.

• FX Strategy Implication:The firm sees value in downside USD/CNH exposure, as markets may still be overpricing depreciation risks.

Conclusion:

Goldman’s upgraded forecasts reflect Beijing’s strategic restraint on currency weakening, with the USD/CNY now expected to grind lower as China leans on domestic stimulus and strives to contain capital flight risk.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.