General Market Analysis – 11/06/25

US Stocks Push Higher as Trade Talks Progress – S&P up 0.55%

US stocks pushed higher in trading yesterday as optimism over trade progress between the US and China crept up. The Dow added 0.25%, the S&P 0.55%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.63% as investors remained cautiously optimistic that tariff deals will be agreed. FX and bond markets were less enthusiastic, with the DXY up just 0.05% to 99.03, while 2-year Treasury yields gained 1.5 basis points to move up to 4.018%, and the 10-year dropped 0.4 of a basis point to 4.470%. Oil prices fell over the course of the day, with Brent down 0.67% to $66.59 and WTI losing 0.47% to $64.98. Gold drifted in a relatively quiet range, losing 0.19% on the day to close at $3,321.88.

US Inflation Numbers in Focus for Traders Today

US inflation numbers are due out in the New York session today, and although the Core PCE Price Index is well documented as the Fed’s favoured data, the market will be paying particular attention to today’s print as it will be one of the first to give an indication of any impact from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff implementation. The headline CPI data is expected to show a 0.2% month-on-month increase, with the Core data showing a 0.3% increase, whilst the year-on-year numbers are expected to show a 2.5% and 2.9% increase, respectively. The year-on-year numbers are still well above the Fed’s target, and the market is not pricing in the possibility of a rate cut until September — and even that sits at only a 50% chance. Traders will be expecting strong moves if the data is significantly off those expectations, as the market reprices Fed rate moves.

Trade Talks and Inflation Numbers in Focus Today

Trade talks between the US and China are dominating market sentiment at the moment, with rangebound conditions experienced over the last couple of days. However, traders are expecting to see volatility pick up today, with details from the trade talks in London likely to come out in the following sessions and key US inflation data due out later in the day. The Asian session has little on the event calendar to move the dial, and traders are expecting ranges to remain intact. However, once Europe opens, the focus will be on London and any updates on those trade talks. The New York session will see a focus return to fundamentals, with the key US CPI numbers for May due out. CPI data (exp. +0.2% m/m) and Core CPI (exp. +0.3% m/m) are due out early in the day. Anything off those expectations will see volatility increase before the focus moves back to the geopolitical arena.

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