Central bank meetings will dominate the economic calendar next week

Next week will be a pivotal one for global monetary policy, with key central banks scheduled to announce their latest decisions. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) will all hold policy meetings. While the BOJ, Fed, and BOE are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, the Swiss National Bank is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.0%.

The main spotlight will fall on the Federal Reserve, not only for its rate decision but also for its updated economic projections and the release of its closely watched dot plot, which outlines expectations for future rate moves. President Trump has continued to push for a 100 basis point rate cut, but Fed officials, prior to the pre-meeting blackout period, signaled no urgency to move, citing ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and their unknown impact on inflation, employment and economic growth.

The backdrop for the Fed is increasingly complex. Oil prices are rising, and the Iran-Israel conflict is becoming more intense, amplifying geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, U.S. economic growth remains positive. This environment likely keeps the Fed on hold—for now. However, if there is a surprise, the recent softer CPI and PPI readings may offer a window for a surprise modest rate cut, particularly as other central banks globally have started easing (a cut is in reaction to global spreads?). In contrast, the Bank of Japan appears firmly anchored in its long-standing ultra-loose stance, with little indication of rate hikes on the horizon.

Other key events include:

• US retail sales (Tuesday)
• Australian employment Wednesday/Thursday in Australia.
• UK retail sales on Friday

Geopolitical risk will also take center stage.

With global conflict, you wonder if there will be another week of no tariffs resolution that they Trump administration has been touting since the Saudi Arabia roadshow. Apart from a redo of the China deal, there has been little in the way of progress with other nations.

Monday, June 16

• Time: Tentative – BOJ Policy Rate | Forecast: <0.50% | Previous: <0.50%

• Time: Tentative – Monetary Policy Statement

• Time: Tentative – BOJ Press Conference

Tuesday, June 17

• 8:30am (USD) – Core Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%

• 8:30am (USD) – Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 0.1%

Wednesday, June 18

• 2:00am (GBP) – CPI y/y | Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.5%

• 8:30am (USD) – Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 248K | Previous: 242K

• 11:15am (CAD) – BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

• 2:00pm (USD) – Federal Funds Rate | Forecast: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%

• 2:00pm (USD) – FOMC Economic Projections

• 2:00pm (USD) – FOMC Statement

• 2:30pm (USD) – FOMC Press Conference

• 6:45pm (NZD) – GDP q/q | Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.7%

• 9:30pm (AUD) – Employment Change | Forecast: 19.9K | Previous: 89.0K

• 9:30pm (AUD) – Unemployment Rate | Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%

Thursday, June 19

• 3:30am (CHF) – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

• 3:30am (CHF) – SNB Policy Rate | Forecast: 0.00% | Previous: 0.25%

• 4:00am (CHF) – SNB Press Conference

• 7:00am (GBP) – Monetary Policy Summary

• 7:00am (GBP) – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | Forecast: 0–2–7 | Previous: 0–1–8

• 7:00am (GBP) – Official Bank Rate | Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.25%

Friday, June 20

• 2:00am (GBP) – Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: 1.2%

• 2:40am (JPY) – BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.