The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 16 June 2025 Sample

There is no doubt that geopolitics will again have a major part to play in market moves in the week ahead after the sharp escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran that has been witnessed over the last few days.
Markets were rocked on Friday as first Israel attacked key Iranian nuclear targets, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran. There has been no let-up in the attacks over the weekend, and traders are expecting a busy start to the week on the Monday morning open in Asia.
On top of the geopolitical concerns that will affect markets over the coming few days, the macroeconomic calendar is also stacked with central bank rate calls and key Tier 1 data, which should add more volatility to already sensitive markets.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Traders are expecting a lively start to the week in the Asian session on Monday as the market prices in more risks from the Middle East over the weekend. The focus will switch to fundamentals midway through the session with a key Chinese data dump due out, including Industrial Production and Retail Sales numbers. There is little on the calendar in the European session on Monday, and just the Empire State Manufacturing Index update in the New York session, and therefore most participants are expecting geopolitics to dominate on the first trading day of the week.

We have the first major central bank rate announcement of the week on Tuesday with the Bank of Japan due to make its latest call around midday in Tokyo. The European session sees the German ZEW Economic Sentiment data released early in the day, and we also have US Retail Sales data due out shortly after the New York open.

The Asian session has little on the calendar on Wednesday, but there will be a strong focus on UK markets shortly after the European open with the key UK CPI data due out. The US session looks set to be dominated by the Federal Reserve Bank’s rate update towards the end of the day, although there should be some volatility around the Weekly Unemployment Claims and US Crude Oil Inventory earlier in the session. Canadian markets may also see some moves when we hear from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem midway through the session.

There will be a strong antipodean focus for the Asian session on Thursday with key New Zealand GDP numbers out early in the day, followed a few hours later by the Australian Employment data. The London session should be lively on Thursday with both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England due to make interest rate decisions during the morning. The New York session could be a tricky one, with US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. Liquidity will be at lower levels than normal, which could see moves exacerbated, especially if geopolitical concerns are still high.

Friday looks to be a relatively quieter day in terms of scheduled events, although there are still some potential market-moving updates scheduled. The Asian session sees Chinese Loan Rate updates early in the morning before the focus moves to Japan near the end of the session and a scheduled speech from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. UK data is again scheduled early in the London session with Retail Sales numbers due out. US markets are back open on Friday, although desks may be at lower staffing levels. The initial data focus will be north of the border for Canadian Retail Sales data before we round out the week with the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index update later in the day.

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