General Market Analysis – 17/06/25

Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes – Nasdaq up 1.5%

Global stock markets rallied in the latter half of the trading day yesterday as news hit the wires that Iran is looking for a ceasefire with Israel. The three major US indices all pushed higher, the Dow up 0.75%, the S&P 0.94%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.54%. The dollar pulled back, the DXY down 0.14% to 98.13, while sterling pushed higher on news that a trade deal between the US and the UK has been finalized. US Treasury yields gained more ground, the 2-year up 1.9 basis points to 3.967%, and the 10-year up 4.8 basis points to 4.446%. Oil prices took a hit, now sitting over 7% off Friday’s peaks, with Brent down 1.67% on the day to $72.99 and WTI down 1.66% to $71.77 a barrel. Gold also pulled back off recent highs as haven flows receded, down 1.42% to $3,381.69.

Oil Remains in Focus for Investors This Week

Oil prices have been rocked by updates out of the Middle East in the last few trading days, and investors are expecting more volatility in the days ahead. WTI gained as much as 12.66% on Friday as news hit the market of attacks by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent reprisals from Iran and has since dropped back to starting levels on news that Iran is now seeking a ceasefire. Most investors now are awaiting clarity on the situation before looking to position themselves for longer-term plays; however, fast-money accounts will still look to trade what is now a large range on the back of any fresh updates. Initial support for WTI now comes in on the 200-day moving average just above $68.50, with longer-term support on the trendline down at $57.70, while resistance sits up on Friday’s high at $77.62. Any further escalation in the situation will see those recent highs come into focus swiftly, whilst a move towards a ceasefire should see prices move back towards levels seen before Friday’s attacks.

Fundamental Calendar Picks Up Today

Traders are expecting fundamentals to start picking up their influence on markets from today as the week progresses, as the Bank of Japan becomes the first cab off the rank in a busy central bank week. The rate decision from the BOJ will be the major focus for Asian markets today, with the announcement expected to come around lunchtime in Tokyo. The bank is firmly expected to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, but traders are expecting volatility around the statement and the press conference later in the day. There is little on the calendar in the European time zone today, and updates out of the Middle East are expected to remain in focus for traders. The New York open sees the first major update from the US this week with Retail Sales data (exp -0.5% m/m) and Core Retail Sales data (exp +0.2% m/m) due out. Once again though, most market participants are expecting updates from the Middle East and the G7 meetings in Canada to dominate market sentiment.

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