General Market Analysis – 2/10/25

US Stocks Push Higher Despite Data and Shutdown – Nasdaq up 0.4%

US stocks pushed higher in trading yesterday despite more poor jobs data and a government shutdown, which means markets will not have their usual data as scheduled this week, including the key Non-Farms numbers tomorrow. The Dow added just 0.09% to move up to 46,411, while the other two major indices were dragged higher by the tech sector again, the S&P up 0.34% to 6,711 and the Nasdaq up 0.42% to 22,755. Treasury yields took a big hit after the ADP Non-Farms data came in well below expectations, the 2-year off 7.4 basis points to 3.535% and the benchmark 10-year off 5.2 basis points to 4.098%. The dollar dipped but recovered later in the day, the DXY closing up 0.05% at 97.83. Oil prices fell again to hit 16-week lows as oversupply concerns continued to weigh, both Brent and WTI falling 0.95% to $65.40 and $61.78 a barrel respectively. Gold again drove higher to hit another fresh all-time high, peaking at $3,895.09 before ultimately closing up 0.18% at $3,865.74 an ounce.

Investors Look at Shutdown Impact

US markets were relatively calm in trading yesterday given the fact that the US government has gone into shutdown, with President Trump threatening to use the closure to fire thousands of employees. Markets appear to be calling the government’s bluff at the moment, with stocks pushing higher as most investors look at other recent shutdowns which were resolved relatively swiftly. However, it has already been confirmed that we will not have key US employment data on Friday, a highlight of the global economic calendar, which could disturb traders and Fed officials alike. If it is just a small delay in the release and it can be rescheduled swiftly, then the impact is likely to be minimal. However, if the shutdown continues and traders and the Fed have to ‘fly blind’ into the next Fed meeting, then expect to see some negative moves for US markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar in Doubt for US Data

It was set to be a relatively quiet day ahead on the macroeconomic calendar today, and now could be even more so with US data unlikely to be released due to the US government shutdown. The Asian session again had very little on the cards today, and Chinese market holidays could affect liquidity, but markets are expected to start the day in a cautious manner as investors digest the US shutdown. We do definitely get some data after the European session commences, with key Swiss CPI data (exp. -0.2% m/m) due out. Traders are expecting to see moves in the franc around the release, with negative numbers likely to put more pressure on the SNB to cut rates further from their zero base where they currently sit. We were due to have the usual US Weekly Unemployment Claims (exp. 225k) released today once the US session started; however, that looks very much in doubt now with government workers on shutdown. Fed member Lorie Logan is set to speak today, and it’s likely that these updates will now have a greater impact on the market as investors attempt to analyze what a lack of data updates will mean for Fed thinking at the next meeting.

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