General Market Analysis – 10/10/25

US Stocks Pull Back Ahead of Earnings – Dow down 0.5%

US stock indices pulled back in trading yesterday as investors took profits ahead of key third-quarter earnings updates. The Dow fell 0.52% to 46,358, the S&P dropped 0.28% to 6,735, and the Nasdaq edged 0.08% lower to 23,024. Treasury yields pushed higher within familiar ranges, the 2-year up 1.3 basis points to 3.593% and the 10-year up 2.1 basis points to 4.138%. The dollar again drove higher against the majors, the DXY up 0.50% to 99.41, with USDJPY notably taking another step higher. Oil prices took a hit on news of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Brent down 1.57% to $65.21, and WTI down 1.66% to $61.51 a barrel. Gold also fell hard on the news, losing 1.61% on the day to drop from recent historic levels, closing at $3,976.86 an ounce.

Oil in Focus as Gaza Ceasefire Hits Prices

Oil contracts fell in trading yesterday as a long-awaited ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas hit the newswires. The peace deal could be the start of a positive wave across the Middle East, with the possibility that this would then see a sharp reduction in Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and even help with a nuclear deal for the US with Iran. Geopolitical concerns have kept oil prices relatively strong, but if those concerns are significantly reduced and production levels remain high, then we could see oil contracts fall in the coming days and weeks. WTI is currently trading around $61.50 a barrel, but more positive news in the Middle East could see it challenge the annual low just above $55 in a relatively short timeframe. However, experienced traders are not expecting everything to move smoothly over the next few weeks and see more volatility in the sessions ahead. For now, though, good news should see rallies well sold into, with initial resistance now around $66.50 and longer-term levels up at recent highs at $78.40 a barrel.

More Moves Expected Despite Light Calendar Day

Traders are expecting more volatility in the market today despite another relatively light calendar day ahead. News of a ceasefire agreement has hit commodity prices, and further developments should see more moves in the coming trading sessions. The Asian session will see an early focus on Australian markets, with Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock set to testify before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Canberra; however, there is little else scheduled to move the dial for the rest of the session. It is a similar story in the London session, with nothing of note in the diary; however, we do have some data due out once New York opens. The initial focus will be north of the border on Canadian markets with key employment data due out. The unemployment rate is expected to push up to 7.2%, with the employment change data expected to show a small 2.8k increase in the last month. We do have some US data on the cards as well, notably not from a government department, with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (exp. 54.1) and Inflation Expectations (last 4.7%) due out later in the session.

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