General Market Analysis – 3/11/25

US Stocks Push Higher into the Weekend – Nasdaq up 0.6%

US stock indices pushed higher again on Friday despite investor concerns about a less dovish Fed, a US data vacuum, and mixed earnings from big tech players. The Dow added 0.09% to 47,562, the S&P finished up 0.26% at 6,840, while the Nasdaq led the way again, closing up 0.61% at 23,724. Treasury yields pulled back, with the 2-year down 3.5 basis points at 3.574%, and the 10-year lost 1.9 basis points to close the week at 4.077%. The dollar, however, continued its rise post the Fed meeting, with the DXY up 0.19% at 99.72. Oil prices rose, with Brent up 0.62% to $64.77 and WTI up 0.68% to $60.98, and further moves are expected today after OPEC+ announced lower production increases than expected in the months ahead due to supply concerns. Gold experienced another choppy day, ultimately closing 0.53% lower at $4,002.92.

Busy Week Again for Traders

Traders are expecting another volatile week ahead with several financial products near all-time levels, geopolitical updates likely, more central bank rate calls, and the likely absence of key US jobs numbers all set to feature. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are both expected to keep rates on hold this week; however, traders are expecting plenty of volatility on forward guidance from both committees. Trade updates are likely again from various jurisdictions, and the US earnings season continues in earnest. All of these factors could combine to drive markets significantly in one direction or the other—or at least keep them very choppy. In addition to the above, the data vacuum in the US is likely to start increasing concerns as we look set to miss another crucial jobs market update, with the government shutdown likely to see Non-Farms, JOLTS Job Openings, and Weekly Unemployment Claims data all delayed or cancelled. Overall, it is very hard to pick one direction for markets at the moment, and we could be trading at very different levels come 5 p.m. in New York on Friday.

Steady Start to the Trading Week

It looks like a steady start to the trading week today, with little dramatic on the geopolitical front over the weekend—for a change—and a relatively quiet calendar ahead of us. Liquidity will be affected in the Asian session today with Japanese markets closed for Culture Day, and traders are expecting a smooth start to the week with little on the calendar to move market momentum. There will be a strong focus on Swiss markets shortly after the London open, with key CPI data due out. The market is expecting a 0.1% decrease in the month-on-month number, and anything further south of this could put pressure on the Swiss National Bank to move to negative rates in the coming months. We are likely to see some data out of the US today, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (exp. 49.4) and ISM Manufacturing Prices (exp. 62.4) numbers due out shortly after the open. Central bankers are back on the speaking circuit this week, and we hear from Fed members Daly and Cook today, as well as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

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