General Market Analysis – 21/11/25

US Equities Drop Again After Employment Data – Nasdaq down 2.15%

US stocks slid again in yesterday’s session, with all three major indices finishing firmly in the red. The pullback came as the initial boost from Nvidia’s upbeat earnings faded and investors refocused on the mixed September jobs report, which showed stronger headline job creation but an unwelcome rise in the unemployment rate. The Dow Jones dropped 0.84% to close at 45,752, while the S&P 500 fell 1.56% to 6,538, and the Nasdaq led the declines with a 2.15% fall to 22,078. Treasury yields fell after the numbers, with the 2-year yield dropping 5.9 basis points to 3.533%, and the 10-year slipping 5.2 basis points to 4.084%. Despite lower yields, the US dollar remained firm, with the DXY edging up 0.05% to 100.23, keeping it near its strongest levels of the year. Commodities were weaker across the board. Brent fell 0.58% to US$63.13, while WTI crude declined 0.83% to US$58.76, as ongoing US diplomatic pressure for progress in the Russia–Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. Gold had a rare quiet day, inching up just 0.02% to US$4,077.19 by the NY close, marking one of its most range-bound sessions in weeks.

Mixed Employment Data Locks in Live December Fed Meeting

The first US employment numbers for a couple of months came in mixed overnight, with the headline Non-Farms employment change printing at +119k, smashing expectations, which had been around the +60k mark. However, the Average Hourly Earnings number came in at 0.2% against an expected 0.3%, and the Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.4%. We had mixed reactions across financial markets, with Treasury yields pulling back after the data and stocks slumping, while the dollar held its ground against the majors to push toward annual highs. Fed rate-cut expectations had dipped to around 30% on the previous day, but they have blipped up to near 40%, which means that the Fed meeting in December at the moment falls very much in the “live” category. We will have more data following in the coming weeks, but if we see more mixed messages from the figures, then expect a very turbulent market day on December 10th.

Busy Day to End the Trading Week

It shapes up as a busy end to the trading week, with a heavy run of data scheduled across the European and US sessions and several central bank speakers expected to provide further clues on policy direction. The Asian session is relatively quiet, but the data starts to come thick and fast as soon as London comes in. There are a raft of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers due out today, with data from France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US all likely to move markets. The London session also sees the release of the latest UK Retail Sales data (exp. -0.1% m/m). The New York session also sees Retail Sales numbers out of Canada, with the market expecting the headline to show a 0.7% month-on-month decline and the Core data a 0.5% pullback. We also hear from several central bankers during the course of the latter two sessions, with the SNB’s Martin Schlegel and the ECB’s Christine Lagarde featuring earlier in the day, and Fed members Barr, Miran, Jefferson, and Logan all speaking later on.

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