General Market Analysis – 25/11/25

US Stocks Rally on Fed Rate Cut Hopes – Nasdaq up over 2%

US equities opened the week on a firm footing, with all three major indices posting solid gains as expectations for a December rate cut increased again. Markets are now assigning an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December FOMC meeting, up from just 40% only days ago. The Dow Jones rose 0.44% to close at 46,448, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.55% to 6,705, while major tech players rallied strongly, driving the Nasdaq up 2.69% to finish at 22,872. Treasury markets reflected the dovish shift, with the 2-year yield slipping 1.1 basis points to 3.497% and the 10-year yield falling 3.8 basis points to 4.025%, while the U.S. dollar was more muted, with the DXY edging 0.08% lower to 100.20. Oil prices climbed as resistance to the proposed Ukraine peace accord raised fresh uncertainty around supply conditions. Brent gained 1.33% to trade at $63.39, while WTI rose 1.46% to $58.91. Gold also pushed higher from key support levels, rallying 1.64% to settle at $4,131.89 by the New York close.

Oil Rises on Peace Doubts and Fed Cuts

Oil prices pushed higher in trading yesterday after having pulled back significantly over the past week on hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The US has been actively trying to negotiate a deal between the two parties, and progress had led to WTI prices dropping nearly 6% over the course of last week. However, updates yesterday that Ukraine may push back again on some of Russia’s requests led to a 1.5% rally. Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate cut increased again last night, now up to a near 80% chance from just 40% a couple of days ago, and the dollar side of the trade has helped yesterday’s move. Traders are expecting more volatility in ‘Black Gold’ in the next few days, with more updates and movement expected from both sides of the equation. Support for WTI now sits near the recent low just above $57, with resistance now around the $60.25 mark.

Economic Calendar Picks up Today

The macroeconomic calendar picks up today with traders preparing for a deluge of data before an anticipated calmer end to the week due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. There is little to move the dial on the calendar in the first two trading sessions of the day, however strong overnight moves and the potential for more geopolitical updates should keep markets buoyant. Risk events pick up strongly once New York opens though, with more delayed data due to hit the street. September PPI and Retail Sales data is due out, just 40 days late: the PPI (exp +0.3% m/m), Core PPI (exp +0.2% m/m), Retail Sales (exp +0.4% m/m), and Core Retail Sales (exp +0.3% m/m) will all be released at the same time, with traders expecting plenty of volatility around the event. Later in the session, we also have the latest Pending Home Sales (exp +0.5%) and Richmond Manufacturing Index (exp -5) data out; however, expect the earlier data to dominate sentiment.

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