General Market Analysis – 26/11/25

US Stocks Push Higher Again on Rate Cut Hopes – Dow up 1.4%

US stock indices pushed higher again overnight, marking a third consecutive day of gains as Fed rate-cut expectations continued to firm. The Dow led the move with a strong 1.43% rise to finish at 47,112, the S&P 500 gained 0.91%, closing at 6,765, while the Nasdaq added 0.67% to end the session at 23,025. The improving risk sentiment saw Treasury yields ease back further, with the 2-year yield falling 2.7 basis points to 3.45% and the 10-year slipping 3.1 basis points to close at 3.994%, comfortably below the key 4% level. The US dollar also weakened against the majors, the DXY falling 0.34% to 99.80. In commodities, oil prices extended their decline, with Brent dropping 1.20% to settle at $62.61 and WTI sliding 1.26% to $58.10, as optimism around potential progress in resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on prices. Gold eased slightly, dipping 0.14% to trade at $4,130.01 as it remained confined within its recent range.

Dollar Plays Catch Up with Fed Rates and Yields

The dollar at last played a bit of catch-up with both Fed rate-cut expectations and bond yields in trading yesterday as it fell against the majors, dropping just over 0.3% on the day. While estimates for a Fed rate cut have jumped from below 40% to above 85% in the last week, and the 10-year yield has dropped from well above 4.10% to under 4%, the dollar had remained resolutely strong, but yesterday’s trading saw the first dip against the majors. Traders are expecting more volatility in the sessions ahead today, with more data from the US due and Thanksgiving holiday trading conditions looming. However, some feel that the huge move in expectations may be overdone, with little really changed on the fundamentals except some updates from Fed officials, and that the FX market may be right to keep the greenback at relatively high levels.

Hectic Day on the Macroeconomic Calendar

It is shaping up to be a particularly busy session across global markets today, with key economic data, central bank decisions, and fiscal updates scheduled throughout the day. There is a heavy focus on antipodean markets in the Asian session today, with Australian CPI data (exp. +3.6% y/y) due out shortly before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest rate call, where it is firmly expected to cut by 25 basis points. The London session will see the initial focus on the continent, with the ECB Stability Report due out early in the piece, before focus jumps across the channel to the UK for HM Treasury’s Autumn Forecast Statement. The New York session sees more data crammed in ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, with the weekly unemployment claims numbers (exp. 226k), durable goods data (exp. +0.2% m/m, core +0.5% m/m), and Chicago update (exp. 43.9) all set for release. There were some rumours earlier in the week that we may see a delayed Core PCE Price Index release today, but that has failed to materialize.

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