General Market Analysis – 8/12/25

US Stocks Push Higher into Weekend – Nasdaq up 0.3%

US markets closed the week on a slightly firmer footing, with all three major indices posting modest gains on Friday after key inflation data came in line with expectations. The Dow added 0.22% to finish at 47,954, the S&P 500 edged up 0.19% to 6,870, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 23,578. The USD Index slipped 0.07% to 98.99, while Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 2-year rising 3.8 bps to 3.560% and the 10-year up 3.7 bps at 4.135%, despite markets maintaining a firm view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this week. Oil extended its recent advance, with Brent climbing 0.77% to $63.75 and WTI up 0.69% at $60.08 a barrel, supported by expectations of easier Fed policy and ongoing geopolitical concerns involving Russia and Venezuela. Gold ended the session lower, slipping 0.24% to $4,197.78 after an early-session spike as high as $4,250 faded swiftly.

Central Banks in Focus This Week

Central banks are a huge focus for traders this week, with four key developed nations set to update the market on interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve Bank and the Swiss National Bank are all due to announce rate decisions in the coming days. The RBA, the BOC and the SNB are all expected to keep rates on hold, whilst the Fed is strongly priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut. Even if all does go according to plan in terms of actual rate plays, forward guidance from all four central bank committees is likely to lead to plenty of volatility in markets. We have seen sharp changes in rate move expectations for central banks in recent months as data continues to test markets, and each of this week’s banks have their own unique challenges, which should lead to strong trading opportunities around the rate update events.

Quiet Start to a Huge Week Ahead for Market

The week begins quietly with very little scheduled on today’s macroeconomic calendar. However, activity will accelerate rapidly in the coming days, with multiple central bank decisions and key data releases set to shape market direction as the week progresses. There was very little in terms of geopolitical updates over the weekend to spur markets one way or the other, and we have seen a relatively quiet start to the trading week today. In the Asian session, there is a big data dump due out of Japan today, with final GDP numbers coming out alongside the current account figures, but these are expected to have little impact. The London session also has little on the calendar, although traders will note that Italian markets are on holiday today. It’s similarly quiet in the New York session today as well—very much the calm before the storm later in the week—although sterling traders will pay attention to MPC members Taylor and Lombardelli when they speak later in the day.

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