The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 15 December 2025

It was a busy week for financial markets last week, and it promises to be another one in the days ahead. There was a big central bank focus last week, with the RBA, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank all holding rates steady, while we got the highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The central bank focus continues this week, with key calls due from the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. In addition to the central bank action, there are some crucial data updates due out on the calendar as well, including a shutdown-delayed Non-Farm Payrolls and Retail Sales data run, and key inflation numbers from the US, UK, and Canada.

Traders are expecting this week to be the storm before the calm of Christmas week, and so plenty of volatility looks to be on the cards, with many products potentially at very different levels by 5pm NY time next Friday.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is a relatively quiet start to a busy week on Monday, with little on the calendar for the first two sessions of the day. The New York session sees the first top-tier data release of the week in the form of the Canadian CPI data; this comes out alongside the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers. We are also due to hear from Fed members Williams and Miran during the afternoon.

It is a huge day on the calendar on Tuesday. There is a raft of flash services and manufacturing PMI data out across several jurisdictions, but the big moves will likely come from employment data releases, with key numbers due out from the UK and the US. The US session not only sees the Non-Farm Payrolls release—11 days late, as the BLS continues to play catch-up after the shutdown—but also delayed Retail Sales numbers, and traders are expecting a very busy day around the data.

Again, the Asian session has little on the calendar on Wednesday; however, the focus will be on UK markets as Europe comes in with the latest CPI data due out. Attention then jumps across the Channel for the German IFO Business Climate data. The New York session is quiet in terms of data releases, with just the weekly crude oil inventory numbers out; however, we do hear more Fed updates, with members Waller, Williams, and Bostic speaking.

It is another massive calendar day on Thursday, and things kick off early with New Zealand GDP data out early in the Asian session. The London session is dominated by central bank action, with both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank set to make interest rate decisions, and the New York session sees the release of key US CPI data, the weekly unemployment claims numbers, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index figures.

It is a busy final trading day of the week on Friday, with the major focus on Japanese markets during the Asian session as the Bank of Japan announces its latest rate call. UK markets are again in focus on the London open, with Retail Sales data due out. The New York session sees the initial focus north of the border for Canadian Retail Sales numbers, before US Existing Home Sales data is released alongside the University of Michigan revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations updates.

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