Canada employment change 8.2K versus -5.0 K estimate

The Canada December jobs statistics show:

• Employment change: 8.2 K vs -5.0K estimate, +53.6K prior

• Unemployment rate: 6.8% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.5% prior

• Full-time employment change: 50.2K vs -9.4k last month

• Part-time employment change: -42.0K vs 63.0K last momth

• Participation rate: 65.4% vs 65.1% last month

• Avg hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 3.7% vs 4.0% last month

Highlights:

• Employment was essentially flat in December, rising by 8,200 (0.0%), after three strong monthly gains from September through November.

• The employment rate —the percentage of the population aged 15 years and older who are employed—held steady at 60.9%.

• Full-time employment increased by 50,000 (+0.3%), while part-time employment fell by 42,000 (-1.1%), partially reversing gains from October and November.

• Over the past 12 months, part-time employment grew faster (+2.6%) than full-time employment (+0.7%).

• Private sector, public sector, and self-employment levels showed little change in December.

• The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% in December, partially reversing declines from the prior two months.

• The number of unemployed increased to 1.6 million, up 73,000 (+4.9%) on the month.

• The participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65.4%, reflecting more people entering or re-entering the labor force.

• On a year-over-year basis, the participation rate was unchanged.

Summary: 2025 labour market trend (Canada)

• The Canadian labour market faced headwinds through most of 2025, with hiring slowing amid economic and trade uncertainty, particularly related to U.S. tariffs.

• From January to August, employment was essentially flat, the employment rate declined, and the unemployment rate rose to a multi-year high of 7.1%, driven mainly by weaker hiring rather than layoffs.

• Job finding rates deteriorated early in the year, while layoff rates remained near historical norms, indicating softer labour demand rather than widespread job losses.

• Job vacancies declined, and employers reported less difficulty filling positions, pointing to a cooling labour market.

• Youth were disproportionately affected, with youth unemployment and student joblessness reaching their highest levels in more than a decade (excluding pandemic years).

• Conditions improved late in the year, with employment rebounding from August to November and the employment rate recovering to 60.9%.

• The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November before edging higher to 6.8% in December, reflecting renewed labour force participation rather than renewed job losses.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.