NY Fed manufacturing index for January +7.70 vs +1.0 expected

• Prior was -3.90

Details:

• New orders 6.6 vs 0.0 prior
• Shipments 16.3 vs -5.7 prior
• Employment -9.0 vs 7.3 prior
• Average employee workweek -5.4 versus 3.5 prior
• Prices paid 42.8 vs 37.6 prior
• Prices received 14.4 vs 19.8 prior
• Unfilled orders -8.2 vs -14.9 prior
• Delivery times 0.0 vs -5.9 prior
• Inventories -2.1 vs 4.0 prior
• Supply availability -4.1 vs -6.9 prior

Manufacturing activity increased in New York State, according to the January survey. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 7.7, returning to positive territory after a small dip below zero in December. New orders and shipments increased, with the new orders index rising eight points to 6.6 and the shipments index climbing twenty-one points to 16.3, its highest level in over a year. Unfilled orders decreased. Inventories edged down and delivery times were unchanged. The supply availability index came in at -4.1, suggesting supply availability was slightly worse than last month.

Six-month outlook:

• General business conditions 30.3 vs 35.7 prior
• New orders 33.3 vs 38.0 prior
• Shipments 34.9 vs 33.3 prior
• Number of employees 14.9 vs 8.8 prior
• Average employee workweek 17.5 vs 12.9 prior
• Prices paid 52.6 vs 55.4 prior
• Prices received 36.5 vs 46.5 prior
• Capital expenditures 10.3 vs 6.9 prior
• Unfilled orders 10.3 vs 12.9 prior

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions came in at 30.3, with about half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase. Supply availability is expected to be unchanged. Firms continue to anticipate significant price increases, though somewhat less so than in recent months. The capital expenditures index rose three points to 10.3, pointing to ongoing modest capital spending plans.

WHAT IS THE NY FED MANUFACTURING INDEX?

The New York Fed Manufacturing Index (officially known as the Empire State Manufacturing Survey) is a monthly economic indicator that gauges the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State.

Because it is released very early in the monnth, usually around the 15th, it is considered a “bellwether” or leading indicator for the broader U.S. manufacturing industry and the overall economy. It’s a low-tier indicator though, meaning it’s not as market-moving as the ISM Manufacturing index.

It’s a diffusion index, meaning it represents the difference between the percentage of companies reporting an increase in activity and those reporting a decrease:

• Above 0.0: Indicates that manufacturing activity is expanding.

• Below 0.0: Indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.