Why are non-farm payrolls being released on Good Friday? Here’s what’s open and what isn’t

Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed.

Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It’s the only stock market holiday that isn’t also a federal holiday. The date moves around because it’s tied to the lunar calendar — and this year it falls on April 3.

The BLS releases the employment situation report on the third Friday after the week containing the 12th of the month, which is usually the first Friday of the month. This time, that’s also April 3.

The last time this happened was 2023, with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, and 1999.

What’s open tomorrow

The government is open. Good Friday is not a federal holiday, so the BLS will release the March employment report at 8:30 am ET on schedule. Consensus is for +60,000 jobs after February’s -92,000 (see the economic calendar for more).

Here’s the breakdown:

Closed all day: NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities, plus most global exchanges including London, Toronto, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, and Sydney.

Open for abbreviated sessions: CME equity index futures will trade briefly with an early close around 9:15 am CT (10:15 am ET), using April 2 settlement prices. CME interest rate, FX, and crypto futures will also run abbreviated sessions with unique settlement procedures. Spot forex trades as normal, as always. Crypto markets are open 24/7, though futures will follow the CME calendar.

Bond market: SIFMA recommended a full close on Good Friday for U.S. dollar-denominated fixed income, though the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and banks will be open. FINRA/TRACE will be closed so we won’t get a read on bonds.

The bottom line: any payroll surprise will channel through futures and FX, though war news is still paramount.

A history of Good Friday surprises

Beth Stanton had an excellent thread on X walking through the backstory. Until 1996, the bond industry association (now SIFMA) recommended a full close on Good Friday, even when it coincided with NFP.

That was tested in April 1994 when payrolls came in at +456,000 — nearly double the 238,000 forecast. It was ugly. Futures were open and many dealers had staffed their desks anyway.

So when it happened again in 1996, the association recommended keeping bonds open until noon. Payrolls printed +140,000 — almost three times the 49,000 consensus — and another sharp selloff followed.

However we’re now back to a situation where the bond market is closed. Will we get another surprise?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.