IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session on April 18 featured equity rallies driven by Trump’s de-escalation signals on the U.S.-Iran war, easing oil inflation fears, and spurring record Nasdaq/Dow gains, while bonds rallied on tempered rate hike worries amid stable labor data but cautious consumer trends; oil and energy-sensitive currencies like CAD saw relief, underscoring geopolitics’ outsized market sway over absent macro prints.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a pivotal start with the PBOC interest rate decision at 01:15 GMT, likely holding at 3.00% but poised to influence CNY pairs, equities, and commodities amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire hopes that have tempered oil spikes (WTI ~$93) and lifted indices like Nikkei’s recent record; New Zealand trade data adds forex cues, while lingering Middle East risks and soft prior China imports underscore volatility potential across oil, gold (~$4,800), and regional benchmarks.

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The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar has shown resilience amid ongoing Middle East tensions, including a fragile ceasefire and US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, supporting its safe-haven status and linking it closely to oil price fluctuations. Recent market updates indicate the DXY hovered around pre-war levels near 98-99 after oil eased to the $80s, with forecasts pointing to short-term strength (e.g., EUR/USD at 1.14 in 3 months) driven by sticky US inflation, delayed Fed cuts, and higher defense spending risks, though medium-term debt concerns could pressure it lower.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold hit an all-time high of $5,608 in January 2026 but has been consolidating post a bearish March, with forecasts suggesting potential upside to $5,320 or downside to $4,254 depending on macro releases. Weekly outlooks highlight demand zones near $4,400–$4,650 and supply at prior highs.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has shown resilience in recent trading sessions leading into April 20, 2026, with the AUD/USD pair hovering around 0.7167-0.7170 as of late last week, marking a 4-year high near 0.71 and reflecting a 2.04% monthly gain amid improving global risk sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

CPI q/q (10:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has faced ongoing pressure in recent months amid dovish signals from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which held rates at 2.25% in February 2026 while signaling prolonged accommodative policy, contributing to NZD/USD dipping toward 0.5989 before partial recoveries above 0.6000.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325 basis point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has faced ongoing pressure in early April 2026, trading around the USD/JPY 158-160 range amid volatility driven by Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy signals and global market dynamics. Recent exchange rate data show minor fluctuations, with rates near 159.85 on April 13, reflecting resilience despite broader USD strength and concerns over Tokyo’s cooling core inflation, which has tempered rate hike expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18–19 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes’ effects amid data-dependent normalization.
• The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.
• JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to ¥200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly ¥2-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability
• Japan’s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.
• Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.
• Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.
• Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.
• Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.
• The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets remain highly volatile, driven primarily by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions to tanker traffic continue to fuel supply uncertainty. WTI crude closed the prior week near $83.60 after dipping toward $79, with analysts forecasting a turbulent Monday open potentially spiking above $90 amid reports of slowed shipping and fast-changing Middle East developments.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.