UK: Activity slows due to Brexit uncertainty – Rabobank

Stefan Koopman, market economist at Rabobank, suggests that in the UK, political uncertainty is rearing its head in the latest data, which show that growth is slowing into year-end.

Key Quotes

“The manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 from 51.7, but this was largely due to precautionary stock building in response to Brexit and to supply-chain uncertainties. Meanwhile, global trade tensions have created a very wintry export climate.”

“Growth in the services sector eased to a 28-month low of 50.4. The decline was due to a parallel drop in current activity and new work and, again, Brexit was seen as the main culprit. The composite PMI dropped to 50.7 and indicates that GDP growth has almost come to a halt in Q4.”

“Reduced investment appetite will bite into growth: we expect GDP growth at 0.2% in 18Q4 and 0.1% in 19Q1.”