ECB’s de Cos: If inflationary pressures persist, they are more likely to feed into wage negotiations

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Monday that if inflationary pressures persist, they are likely to feed into wage negotiations and trigger second-round and indirect effects on inflation, reported Reuters. These second-round effects have not yet materialised, with the latest data on wage settlements pointing to employees bearing a considerable loss of purchasing power in recent quarters. 

The natural rate of interest is relatively low in the euro area, de Cos continued, hovering around or slightly above 1.0% and this would suggest that, until these levels are reached, the ECB’s monetary policy stance will continue to be expansionary, at least from a long-term perspective. 

In order for us to adopt a gradual normalisation approach, it is essential that inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2.0% target, he added. Moreover, it is not optimal to pre-commit to any specific interest rate path, much less in the current uncertain context.