Gold cheers softening US consumer confidence

Gold followed the seasonal playbook with great success this year as that trend continues to creep earlier in December and fading early in February. Of course, fundamentals were a huge part as well with gold stumbling on a more-hawkish path for the Fed and higher bond yields.

What’s notable about gold lately though is that it’s holding in on bad days and showing some strength on good ones. Today, it’s trying to carve out an outside bullish day, which is something to watch. It would need to close above $1820 to do it and $1827 (Friday’s high) to really emphasize it. It’s currently trading at $1821.

What I’m wondering about is how much sovereign demand is a factor at the moment. We know that it’s picked up since Q3 2022 and it makes sense that China and Russia would be adding to reserves. Other countries unfriendly with the US may also be pivoting back to gold after seeing Russian reserves confiscated. That said, those flows are competing against bond yields that are suddenly much more attractive then they were for all of the 2010s.

Technically, I don’t see anything here to love and the seasonals in March are poor (worst month) but bulls shouldn’t write off precious metals because if we get more readings like today’s soft consumer confidence, it will be ready for another challenge of $2000.