All 70 economists polled anticipate that the ECB is to hold the deposit rate unchanged at 4.00% until year-end. Meanwhile, 41 of 70 economists (~59%) see the ECB waiting until at least Q3 next year i.e. July at the earliest before taking the step to cut rates. Here are some of the comments from the poll:
“It will probably be some time before the ECB will describe it as such, but 4.00% is likely t o be the terminal rate, in our view. Lagarde apparently did not want to say rates have peaked… However, the hurdle to a further hike does feel relatively high.” – Deutsche Bank
“Another rate hike is not our base case, but there is a fair risk a hike could materialise if wage growth and inflation remain strong through December.” – Rabobank
In terms of the balance of risks for rate cuts, 23 of 38 economists replying to the question say that the risk is that it might be earlier than they forecasted.