Copper is beginning to cook


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copper weekly

Copper prices are up 3% today to the best levels in 14 months.

China represents about 50% of global demand so it’s generally a China story when it’s rallying. So it’s no surprise that the latest leg higher came after this week’s versions of the China PMIs beat expectations.

There is hope for more stimulus from China and that could be the catalyst to get copper closer to $5 but overall, this move paints a good picture of the global economy.

On the supply side, copper is also in an interesting spot. The shut down of Cobre Panama late last year took about 1.7% of global supply offline and tipped copper into a deficit this year. Analysts aren’t looking for a resolution to that until 2026 at the earliest. In the bigger picture, there isn’t much supply coming online for the remainder of the decade and that could create material shortages, particularly if energy demand rises due to the green transition or AI energy demands.

Overall, it’s a very nice setup and one that many have been circling for awhile.