Gold price (XAU/USD) balances below $2,400 in Wednesday’s European session. The precious metal struggles to recapture new all-time highs around $2,430 as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell emphasised maintaining the restrictive policy framework for a longer period. Powell and his colleagues seem to be leaning towards keeping interest rates higher for longer as inflation has remained stubborn and the labor demand remained strong.
The prospects for the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer bodes well for the US Dollar and US bond yields. 10-year US Treasury yields fell slightly but remained close to a five-month high around 4.70%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, turns sideways after refreshing a five-month high near 106.40.
Meanwhile, deepening Middle East tensions hold strong ground for Gold. Israel prepares to respond to Iran’s attack. However, US President Joe Biden said it won’t support the counterattack from Israel. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that the US administration intends to levy new sanctions on Iran after it attacks Israel. Fresh sanctions on Iran could impact their capacity to export Oil.
Gold price trades sideways inside Tuesday’s trading range around $2,380. The upside in the precious metal remains limited as momentum oscillators are cooling down after turning extremely overbought. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart drops slightly after peaking around 85.00. however, the broader-term demand is intact as the RSI remains in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00.
On the downside, April 5 low near $2,268 and March 21 high at $2,223 will be major support areas.
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.