Fed’s Collins: We came into first quarter with solid economic conditions

• We came into first quarter with solid economic conditions.
• Markets continue to function well.
• Tariffs will push up inflation pressures.
• Tariffs announcements are very significant.
• China trade issues are very big for economy.
• Hard to invest in times of big uncertainty.
• Current slate of tariffs are very high.
• Modal view is for slower growth, not a downturn.
• Financial market movements bear focusing on.
• Won’t rule out a downturn.
• Hard to say when tariffs will impact inflation.
• Would expect inflation “well over” 3% this year due to tariffs.
• Sees mixed bag on longer run inflation expectations.
• At this point, expectation is that Fed will need to hold steady for longer.

The hard data from the US has been great. Strong employment, inflation rate continuing its downward move and business optimism high. If it wasn’t for the trade war, the Fed would have been already cutting rates and we would have had risk assets exploding higher.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.