ICYMI: Citi says tariffs a stagflationary shock to US economy, 40-45% chance of recession

Comments from Citigroup’s Chief Economist via a Reuters report ICYMI. In brief:

• “Tariffs are a stagflationary shock to the U.S. economy”
• 40% to 45% chance of recession
• expects Q2 GDP up, driven by consumers making purchases ahead of tariffs coming into effect
• largest negative impact on U.S. growth is expected during H2
• market reaction to tariffs and Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve chair Powell may have a long-lasting impact
• Trump’s attack on Powell shows an “implicit admission of these negative effects” associated with the tariffs
• Markets’ reaction since the announcement of tariffs shows a loss of confidence in U.S. policies
• “Should we mark down estimates of real GDP growth for the U.S. over the next three to five years? Maybe, if you think there is a lasting structural damage to the economy due to compromising of U.S. institutions”

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These remarks from Cit came before the latest policy reversals from Trump;

• Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell – will it last?
• Trump says he has no plans to Fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell
• Trump says he is going to be very nice to China, they have to make a deal

The Citi comments will be useful to refer back to if/when Trump reverses again.

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Updating yen and euro:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.