Barclays cut Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+

Barclays has cut its Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+. The bank now sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel in 2025 (down $4) and $60 in 2026 (down $2).

Key takeaways:

• OPEC+ ramped up output by 411,000 bpd in June, its second consecutive month of aggressive supply increases.

• Saudi Arabia is pressuring under-compliant members like Iraq and Kazakhstan to meet quotas by accelerating production growth.

• Barclays expects OPEC+ to fully unwind its voluntary cuts by October 2025 — a year earlier than previously projected.

• The bank also downgraded U.S. crude production forecasts, seeing output falling by 100,000 bpd in 2025 and 150,000 bpd in 2026.

• Brent crude dropped over $2 in early Monday trade, falling to $59.20 as of 0250 GMT.

Barclays says the faster supply growth could modestly loosen global oil market balances, adding pressure to prices.

Earlier:

• OPEC+ to accelerate oil output hikes, warns of ending voluntary cuts if compliance lags
• Oil price futures gap lower to open the week’s trade – OPEC+ supply hike cited

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For interest, and noting this is not what the market is thinking right now, some analysts are arguing that OPEC’s decision to increase oil production is not overly bearish, the main reason being that most of the increase is in the production ceiling, not
production … and is only on paper. It, in effect, legitimises overproduction
that is already in the market.

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Oil update:

as a ps. Morgan Stanley lowered its oil price forecasts earlier also, cuts it Brent forecast by US$5 / barrel for 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.