investingLive Americas FX news wrap: ISM manufacturing index at the lowest since Nov 2024

• US December ISM manufacturing index 47.9 vs 48.4 expected
• Fed’s Kashkari: My guess is we’re close to neutral now
• London copper prices hit a fresh record, touching $13,000 for the first time
• Novo Nordisk launches first oral Wegovy weight-loss pill in the US
• MicroStrategy purchases an additional $116 million in Bitcoin, expanding reserves
• Goldman Sachs upgrades Coinbase to “Buy” citing rising crypto trade volumes
• Ray Dalio warns AI boom entering early bubble phase for markets

Markets:

• Gold up $116 to $4446
• WTI crude up $1.07 to $58.35
• Bitcoin up 3%
• GBP leads, CAD lags
• S&P 500 up 0.6%
• US 10-year yields down 3.4 bps to 4.15%

Market moves on Monday were mostly about new-year positioning and the fallout from the Venezuelan ouster of Maduro, who plead not-guilty in a New York court today. Oil company stocks were the big winners, adding more than $60 billion in market cap for those with Venezuelan exposure/claims or with the potential to rebuild the country’s oil production capacity.

Gold, bitcoin and precious metals were higher on the bull market in US adventurism. It’s not just Venezuela but US officials quickly talked about Cuba and Greenland after the successful operation. That’s a strong case to be diversifying out of US dollars if you’re a central bank reserve manager and could be threatened by the USA.

Early in the day, the US dollar was stronger but in North American trade it was hit by steady selling. The pound was easily the best performer, doubling the second-place Australian dollar. The UK may have positioned itself as a US ally and alternative at the same time, something that could add to capital flows.

Notably, bonds were bid despite strong stock markets. That is likely the result of caution from some fund managers as we enter an increasingly hard-to-predict geopolitical era. Wars and coups are rarely isolated and tend to cluster; from time to time they even turn into world wars. Those kinds of tail risks are certainly rising and appreciated by the bond market and the rise in crude might also reflect that kind of assessment.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.