How have interest rates expectations changed after the US-China news?

• Fed: 54 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 45 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 50 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 39 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 78 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 69 bps (69% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 30 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 19 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

After the US-UK deal last week, we had some hawkish repricing as the expectations for a 10% baseline tariff for everyone started to solidify.

Now, following the very positive US-China news this morning, the market is taking an even more hawkish view on future rates as positive expectations about global growth and potentially a surge in economic activity in the short-term will likely lead central banks to slow down the pace further.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.