US December non-farm payrolls +50K vs +60K expected

• Prior was +64K (revised to +56K)
• October was -105K (revised to -173K)
• Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.5% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.6%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.375% vs 4.564% prior
• Participation rate 62.4% vs 62.5% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.4% vs 8.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs +3.6% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +37K vs +64K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs -5K expected
• Government payrolls +27K vs -5K in November

The market was pricing in a 12% chance of a January rate cut before the data and a 40% chance of a cut at the March meeting. For the year, there were 54.7 bps of easing priced in. The US 10-year yield was at 4.187% and USD/JPY was trading at 157.57.

The US dollar is mostly lower on this as it reacts to the headline and the poor revisions. I would argue that the market was priced for an upside surprise given that most of the pre-jobs employment numbers were upbeat. The good news in the report is the fall in the unemployment rate, which — without rounding fell nearly 0.2 pp, though a chunk of that was due to people dropping out of the labor force.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.